Panthrakikos
vs
Asteras Tripolis II
Garuda Lions Prediction: Panthrakikos
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.76.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Panthrakikos is the favourite, not a value bet.
Panthrakikos vs Asteras Tripolis II overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Panthrakikos vs Asteras Tripolis II
| Probability | Panthrakikos | Draw | Asteras Tripolis II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.2% | 31.3% | 20.4% |
| Market | 46.0% | 28.1% | 25.8% |
| Final | 46.6% | 28.9% | 24.5% |
| Edge | +0.5% | +0.8% | -1.3% |
Why Panthrakikos
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.76.
Best available price on the pick: 2.09, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.6% per unit staked (our 46.6% × 2.09 − 1).
Panthrakikos vs Asteras Tripolis II match preview
Panthrakikos enters the match with a probability of 43% to win against Asteras Tripolis II, who have a 27% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.30 for Panthrakikos and 0.76 for Asteras Tripolis II. Recent form shows Panthrakikos with two wins in their last five matches, while Asteras Tripolis II has won two out of their last five.
The model indicates a 30% probability of a draw, with both teams to score at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 34%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Panthrakikos and Asteras Tripolis II expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.06
Panthrakikos and Asteras Tripolis II attack and defence ratings
Panthrakikos
Asteras Tripolis II
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Panthrakikos vs Asteras Tripolis II markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Panthrakikos | 46.6% | 2.15 | +0.5% | 2.09 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.1% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Panthrakikos | 46.6% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Asteras Tripolis II | 24.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.9% |
| No | 60.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Panthrakikos win | 23.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.0% | |
| Loss | 51.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.4% |
| 0-0 | 14.0% | |
| 1-1 | 13.8% |
Panthrakikos vs Asteras Tripolis II stats
Panthrakikos and Asteras Tripolis II recent form
| Panthrakikos |
DLDLWW |
| Asteras Tripolis II |
DDWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Panthrakikos and Asteras Tripolis II season so far
Panthrakikos record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Asteras Tripolis II record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Panthrakikos vs Asteras Tripolis II head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Panthrakikos vs Asteras Tripolis II odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.0%, draw 28.1%, away 25.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 3.22 | 3.54 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.09 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.92 | 3.22 | 3.44 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .