Aurora
vs
Municipal
1 – 2 Full time
| 31′ | J. Mendez | ||
| 32′ | P. Mingorance | ||
| 41′ | C. Aguilar | ||
| 43′ | Municipal | ||
| 46′ | J. LemusK. Garcia | ||
| 46′ | C. AguilarA. David | ||
| 46′ | H. Del CidD. Ruiz | ||
| 51′ | J. Mendez | ||
| 70′ | Municipal | ||
| 71′ | N. SamayoaC. Calderon | ||
| 71′ | R. MunozE. Lopez | ||
| 74′ | V. UriasE. Ibarguen | ||
| 74′ | P. MingoranceR. Hernandez | ||
| 78′ | E. Lopez | ||
| 80′ | J. Rodriguez | ||
| 81′ | J. RodriguezH. Morales | ||
| 82′ | P. AltanC. Hernandez | ||
| 83′ | C. Flores |
Aurora vs Municipal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aurora vs Municipal
| Probability | Aurora | Draw | Municipal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.0% | 32.1% | 49.9% |
| Market | 26.0% | 28.4% | 45.7% |
| Final | 24.0% | 29.3% | 46.7% |
| Edge | -8.0% | +3.7% | +4.2% |
Why Municipal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.65.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Municipal below the model: +4.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aurora and Municipal expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.91
Aurora and Municipal attack and defence ratings
Aurora
Municipal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Aurora vs Municipal: result vs prediction
Aurora 1 – 2 Municipal
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aurora vs Municipal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Municipal | 46.7% | 2.14 | +4.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aurora | 24.0% |
| Draw | 29.3% | |
| Municipal | 46.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 70.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.4% |
| No | 64.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Municipal win | 23.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.2% | |
| Loss | 50.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 17.5% |
| 0-0 | 16.1% | |
| 1-1 | 13.3% |
Aurora vs Municipal stats
Aurora and Municipal recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aurora and Municipal going into this match
Aurora record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Municipal record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Aurora vs Municipal head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Municipal | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 4-1 |
| 2026-01-25 | Aurora | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-05 | Aurora | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-26 | Municipal | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aurora vs Municipal odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.5%, draw 29.2%, away 45.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.65 | 3.10 | 1.95 |
| 1xBet | 3.60 | 3.16 | 1.97 |
| 888Sport | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.05 |
| Bet365 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.30 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.60 | 3.05 | 2.07 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 3.10 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.70 | 3.05 | 2.08 |
| Pinnacle | 3.65 | 3.17 | 1.99 |
| Superbet | 3.60 | 3.00 | 2.07 |
| Unibet | 3.10 | 2.95 | 2.18 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.20 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .