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Honduras Liga Nacional · Full time ·Apertura - 5

Real Espana vs Atlético Choloma

2 – 1 Full time

9′A. Villatoro
10′E. Hernandez
21′E. Hernandez
34′H. J. Nunez RamirezL. Ferreira
46′M. PereiraD. Cacho
46′J. BarriosO. Zamora
50′C. Madrid
58′D. VueltoD. Sayago
62′J. Castillo
68′C. Mejia
73′Atlético CholomaM. Lindo
76′N. CruzG. Ritacco
76′E. HernandezM. Arana
80′Real EspanaM. Alvarado
84′E. FlorezC. Ramirez
85′R. Osorto
89′M. Lindo
90′D. Cacho
90′R. OsortoV. Salazar
Real Espana 63%
Draw 22%
Atlético Choloma 15%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Real Espana vs Atlético Choloma overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Real Espana vs Atlético Choloma

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityReal EspanaDrawAtlético Choloma
Model59.0%23.9%17.0%
Market64.9%20.9%14.2%
Final63.4%21.7%14.9%
Edge-5.9%+3.1%+2.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Real Espana

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 0.94.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Real Espana ↓ / Atlético Cholo → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 10% 11% 2 11% 10% 3 7% 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 54%
No goals 7%

Real Espana and Atlético Choloma expected goals

Real Espana 1.91
Atlético Choloma 0.94

Total expected goals: 2.85

Real Espana and Atlético Choloma attack and defence ratings

Real Espana

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 0.78 -22%

Atlético Choloma

Attack 0.92 -8%
Defence 1.09 +9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Real Espana vs Atlético Choloma: result vs prediction

Real Espana 2 – 1 Atlético Choloma

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 5 fixtures

Honduras Liga Nacional

Before and after this match

Real Espana vs Atlético Choloma markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Real Espana 63.4% 1.58 -5.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 54.3% 1.84 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.0% 1.89 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 85.1% 1.18 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 41.0% 2.44 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Real Espana63.4%
Draw21.7%
Atlético Choloma14.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554.3%
Under 2.545.7%
Both teams to scoreYes53.0%
No47.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)85.1%
12 (either side)78.3%
X2 (draw or away)36.6%
Handicap -1Real Espana win35.6%
Push (exactly one goal)23.4%
Loss41.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.4%
2-010.5%
1-010.0%

Real Espana vs Atlético Choloma stats

Real Espana and Atlético Choloma recent form

newest first
Real Espana DDWWDL
Atlético Choloma WLLLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Real Espana and Atlético Choloma going into this match

league record before kick-off

Real Espana record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.

Atlético Choloma record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Real Espana vs Atlético Choloma head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7Real Espana wins 2Draws 1Atlético Choloma wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-09Atlético CholomaReal EspanaHonduras Liga Nacional3-2
2026-02-15Real EspanaAtlético CholomaHonduras Liga Nacional2-1
2025-10-19Real EspanaAtlético CholomaHonduras Liga Nacional3-0
2025-08-09Atlético CholomaReal EspanaHonduras Liga Nacional0-3
2013-03-03Real EspanaAtlético CholomaLiga Nacional2-1
2013-01-20Atlético CholomaReal EspanaLiga Nacional2-2
2012-10-28Atlético CholomaReal EspanaLiga Nacional2-2
2012-08-26Real EspanaAtlético CholomaLiga Nacional3-1
2012-04-29Atlético CholomaReal EspanaLiga Nacional1-2
2012-04-26Real EspanaAtlético CholomaLiga Nacional1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Real Espana vs Atlético Choloma odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 64.9%, draw 20.9%, away 14.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.45 3.90 6.40
1xBet 1.34 4.50 7.41
Bet365 1.42 4.50 5.50
Betano 1.44 4.15 5.80
Betfair 1.36 4.40 6.50
Dafabet 1.42 4.40 6.60
Marathonbet 1.34 4.50 6.90
Pinnacle 1.37 4.21 6.32
Superbet 1.42 4.35 6.10
Unibet 1.38 4.20 5.80
William Hill 1.40 4.00 6.50

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.