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Honduras Liga Nacional · Full time ·Apertura - 6

Real Espana vs Lobos Upnfm

2 – 0 Full time

13′E. Hernandez
16′A. Garcia
31′B. Lopez
49′J. Nunez
59′C. MejiaM. Juan
59′J. PonceA. Erazo
59′A. Zuniga
65′D. VueltoD. Sayago
75′J. GlavocicS. Elvir
75′D. CarterJ. Castrillo
75′B. LopezG. J. Rodas Andrino
78′E. HernandezN. Cruz
78′D. Suazo
86′C. Mejia
90′R. OsortoV. Salazar
Real Espana 67%
Draw 21%
Lobos Upnfm 12%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Real Espana vs Lobos Upnfm overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Real Espana vs Lobos Upnfm

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityReal EspanaDrawLobos Upnfm
Model69.4%20.3%10.3%
Market66.2%21.4%12.4%
Final67.0%21.1%11.9%
Edge+3.3%-1.1%-2.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Real Espana

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 0.72.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Real Espana below the model: +3.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Real Espana ↓ / Lobos Upnfm → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 11% 10% 2 13% 9% 3 9% 7% 4+ 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 55%
No goals 7%

Real Espana and Lobos Upnfm expected goals

Real Espana 2.15
Lobos Upnfm 0.72

Total expected goals: 2.86

Real Espana and Lobos Upnfm attack and defence ratings

Real Espana

Attack 1.16 +16%
Defence 0.79 -21%

Lobos Upnfm

Attack 0.70 -30%
Defence 1.20 +20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Real Espana vs Lobos Upnfm: result vs prediction

Real Espana 2 – 0 Lobos Upnfm

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 6 fixtures

Honduras Liga Nacional

Before and after this match

Real Espana vs Lobos Upnfm markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Real Espana 67.0% 1.49 +3.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 54.6% 1.83 — —
Both teams to score No 53.9% 1.86 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 88.1% 1.13 — —
Handicap -1 Real Espana win 45.9% 2.18 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Real Espana67.0%
Draw21.1%
Lobos Upnfm11.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554.6%
Under 2.545.4%
Both teams to scoreYes46.1%
No53.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)88.1%
12 (either side)78.9%
X2 (draw or away)33.0%
Handicap -1Real Espana win45.9%
Push (exactly one goal)23.6%
Loss30.6%
Correct score (top 3)2-013.1%
1-011.4%
1-19.7%

Real Espana vs Lobos Upnfm stats

Real Espana and Lobos Upnfm recent form

newest first
Real Espana WDDWWD
Lobos Upnfm LLDDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Real Espana and Lobos Upnfm going into this match

league record before kick-off

Real Espana record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.

Lobos Upnfm record

  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Real Espana vs Lobos Upnfm head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Real Espana wins 4Draws 1Lobos Upnfm wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-13Lobos UpnfmReal EspanaHonduras Liga Nacional1-1
2026-02-21Real EspanaLobos UpnfmHonduras Liga Nacional4-3
2025-12-07Lobos UpnfmReal EspanaHonduras Liga Nacional0-0
2025-09-22Real EspanaLobos UpnfmHonduras Liga Nacional2-0
2025-04-13Real EspanaLobos UpnfmLiga Nacional2-1
2025-02-13Lobos UpnfmReal EspanaLiga Nacional3-4
2024-12-01Real EspanaLobos UpnfmLiga Nacional0-0
2024-09-22Lobos UpnfmReal EspanaLiga Nacional1-0
2024-04-03Real EspanaLobos UpnfmLiga Nacional1-0
2024-02-03Lobos UpnfmReal EspanaLiga Nacional1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Real Espana vs Lobos Upnfm odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 66.2%, draw 21.4%, away 12.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.35 4.20 8.15
Bet365 1.38 4.33 6.00
BetVictor 1.36 4.60 7.00
Betano 1.30 4.70 7.90
Betfair 1.29 5.00 8.50
Dafabet 1.63 3.65 4.70
Marathonbet 1.34 4.20 7.80
Pinnacle 1.38 4.13 6.15
Unibet 1.38 4.10 5.80
William Hill 1.36 4.00 7.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.36 ▲ +0.08
X 4.20 ▼ -0.55
2 7.25 ▼ -0.25

6 snapshots recorded, from .