Iwaki
vs
Oita Trinita
2 – 0 Full time
Iwaki vs Oita Trinita overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Iwaki vs Oita Trinita
| Probability | Iwaki | Draw | Oita Trinita |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.7% | 24.0% | 19.4% |
| Market | 45.9% | 27.8% | 26.3% |
| Final | 48.6% | 26.8% | 24.6% |
| Edge | +10.8% | -3.8% | -7.0% |
Why Iwaki
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.05.
- The market prices Iwaki below the model: +10.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Iwaki and Oita Trinita expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.01
Iwaki and Oita Trinita attack and defence ratings
Iwaki
Oita Trinita
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Iwaki vs Oita Trinita: result vs prediction
Iwaki 2 – 0 Oita Trinita
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other 2nd Round fixtures
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Okinawa SV — match page
- Nagoya Grampus vs Gainare Tottori — team news & stats
- Cerezo Osaka vs FC Gifu
- Tokushima Vortis v FC Tokushima — match page
- Machida Zelvia vs Grulla Morioka — team news & stats
- Tokyo Verdy vs Thespakusatsu Gunma
- Yokohama FC v Criacao Shinjuku — match page
- Consadole Sapporo vs Ventforet Kofu — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Iwaki vs Oita Trinita markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Iwaki | 48.6% | 2.06 | +10.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.3% | 2.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Iwaki | 48.6% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Oita Trinita | 24.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% |
| No | 43.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Iwaki win | 35.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 42.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.4% |
Iwaki vs Oita Trinita stats
Iwaki and Oita Trinita recent form
| Iwaki |
L |
| Oita Trinita |
LDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.
Iwaki vs Oita Trinita head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Oita Trinita | Iwaki | J2 League | 4-1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Iwaki | Oita Trinita | J2 League | 4-0 |
| 2025-02-23 | Oita Trinita | Iwaki | J2 League | 0-0 |
| 2024-07-06 | Iwaki | Oita Trinita | J2 League | 0-1 |
| 2024-04-21 | Oita Trinita | Iwaki | J2 League | 0-2 |
| 2023-07-22 | Oita Trinita | Iwaki | J2 League | 1-2 |
| 2023-04-08 | Iwaki | Oita Trinita | J2 League | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Iwaki vs Oita Trinita odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.9%, draw 27.8%, away 26.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.94 | 3.30 | 3.65 |
| 1xBet | 2.02 | 3.42 | 3.49 |
| Bet365 | 1.11 | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.06 | 3.45 | 3.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.00 | 3.42 | 3.48 |
| SBO | 1.91 | 3.07 | 3.31 |
| Superbet | 2.02 | 3.30 | 3.45 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 2.88 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .