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Emperor Cup · Full time ·2nd Round

Tokyo Verdy vs Thespakusatsu Gunma

4 – 1 Full time

Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo

Tokyo Verdy 63%
Draw 22%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 16%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Tokyo Verdy vs Thespakusatsu Gunma overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Tokyo Verdy vs Thespakusatsu Gunma

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityTokyo VerdyDrawThespakusatsu Gunma
Model43.7%29.3%27.1%
Market69.0%19.2%11.8%
Final62.6%21.7%15.6%
Edge-25.3%+10.0%+15.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Tokyo Verdy

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 1.06.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Tokyo Verdy ↓ / Thespakusatsu → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 8% 1 11% 14% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 45%
No goals 10%

Tokyo Verdy and Thespakusatsu Gunma expected goals

Tokyo Verdy 1.40
Thespakusatsu Gunma 1.06

Total expected goals: 2.46

Tokyo Verdy and Thespakusatsu Gunma attack and defence ratings

Tokyo Verdy

Attack 0.63 -37%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Thespakusatsu Gunma

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Tokyo Verdy vs Thespakusatsu Gunma: result vs prediction

Tokyo Verdy 4 – 1 Thespakusatsu Gunma

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other 2nd Round fixtures

Emperor Cup

Before and after this match

Tokyo Verdy vs Thespakusatsu Gunma markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Tokyo Verdy 62.6% 1.60 -25.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 55.4% 1.81 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.5% 1.98 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 84.4% 1.18 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.3% 1.77 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Tokyo Verdy62.6%
Draw21.7%
Thespakusatsu Gunma15.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544.6%
Under 2.555.4%
Both teams to scoreYes50.5%
No49.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)84.4%
12 (either side)78.3%
X2 (draw or away)37.4%
Handicap -1Tokyo Verdy win21.6%
Push (exactly one goal)22.1%
Loss56.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.9%
1-010.7%
0-09.8%

Tokyo Verdy vs Thespakusatsu Gunma stats

Tokyo Verdy and Thespakusatsu Gunma recent form

newest first
Tokyo Verdy DLDLDL
Thespakusatsu Gunma WLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Tokyo Verdy vs Thespakusatsu Gunma head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Tokyo Verdy wins 4Draws 1Thespakusatsu Gunma wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-10-01Thespakusatsu GunmaTokyo VerdyJ2 League0-0
2023-06-18Tokyo VerdyThespakusatsu GunmaJ2 League2-2
2023-06-07Tokyo VerdyThespakusatsu GunmaEmperor Cup2-1
2022-09-10Tokyo VerdyThespakusatsu GunmaJ2 League1-1
2022-03-13Thespakusatsu GunmaTokyo VerdyJ2 League0-1
2021-07-11Thespakusatsu GunmaTokyo VerdyJ2 League2-2
2021-05-05Tokyo VerdyThespakusatsu GunmaJ2 League3-1
2020-11-15Thespakusatsu GunmaTokyo VerdyJ2 League0-3
2020-09-13Tokyo VerdyThespakusatsu GunmaJ2 League1-3
2017-10-15Thespakusatsu GunmaTokyo VerdyJ2 League1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Tokyo Verdy vs Thespakusatsu Gunma odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 69.0%, draw 19.2%, away 11.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.31 4.70 8.80
1xBet 1.33 5.00 8.20
Bet365 1.28 4.75 8.00
Betano 1.36 4.45 6.70
Betfair 1.30 4.75 7.50
Dafabet 1.37 5.00 8.20
Marathonbet 1.32 5.00 8.20
Pinnacle 1.35 5.09 6.49
SBO 1.34 4.19 6.28
Superbet 1.34 4.75 7.10
Unibet 1.30 4.90 7.00
William Hill 1.30 4.50 8.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.33 ▲ +0.03
X 4.75 ▼ -0.25
2 7.75 ▼ -1.00

2 snapshots recorded, from .