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Emperor Cup · Full time ·2nd Round

Montedio Yamagata vs Fujieda MYFC

3 – 5 Full time

ND Soft Stadium Yamagata, Tendo

Montedio Yamagata 48%
Draw 26%
Fujieda MYFC 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Montedio Yamagata vs Fujieda MYFC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Montedio Yamagata vs Fujieda MYFC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMontedio YamagataDrawFujieda MYFC
Model68.6%16.6%14.8%
Market41.4%29.4%29.1%
Final48.2%26.2%25.6%
Edge+27.1%-12.9%-14.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Montedio Yamagata

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.96 vs 1.36.
  • The market prices Montedio Yamagata below the model: +27.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Montedio Yamag ↓ / Fujieda MYFC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 2 8% 3 8% 4+ 9% 12% 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 93%
3+ goals 81%
No goals 2%

Montedio Yamagata and Fujieda MYFC expected goals

Montedio Yamagata 2.96
Fujieda MYFC 1.36

Total expected goals: 4.32

Montedio Yamagata and Fujieda MYFC attack and defence ratings

Montedio Yamagata

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 1.15 +15%

Fujieda MYFC

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 1.16 +16%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Montedio Yamagata vs Fujieda MYFC: result vs prediction

Montedio Yamagata 3 – 5 Fujieda MYFC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other 2nd Round fixtures

Emperor Cup

Before and after this match

Montedio Yamagata vs Fujieda MYFC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Montedio Yamagata 48.2% 2.07 +27.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80.4% 1.24 — —
Both teams to score Yes 71.4% 1.40 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 74.4% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Montedio Yamagata win 50.7% 1.97 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Montedio Yamagata48.2%
Draw26.2%
Fujieda MYFC25.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.580.4%
Under 2.519.6%
Both teams to scoreYes71.4%
No28.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.4%
12 (either side)73.8%
X2 (draw or away)51.8%
Handicap -1Montedio Yamagata win50.7%
Push (exactly one goal)18.8%
Loss30.5%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.0%
3-17.8%
1-16.0%

Montedio Yamagata vs Fujieda MYFC stats

Montedio Yamagata and Fujieda MYFC recent form

newest first
Montedio Yamagata LDW
Fujieda MYFC LW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.

Montedio Yamagata vs Fujieda MYFC head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

5Montedio Yamagata wins 0Draws 2Fujieda MYFC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-11-29Montedio YamagataFujieda MYFCJ2 League2-1
2025-05-31Fujieda MYFCMontedio YamagataJ2 League2-1
2024-08-24Fujieda MYFCMontedio YamagataJ2 League0-1
2024-03-20Montedio YamagataFujieda MYFCJ2 League0-1
2023-08-05Fujieda MYFCMontedio YamagataJ2 League1-2
2023-05-07Montedio YamagataFujieda MYFCJ2 League3-2
2015-10-14Fujieda MYFCMontedio YamagataEmperor Cup1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Montedio Yamagata vs Fujieda MYFC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.4%, draw 29.4%, away 29.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.24 3.20 3.00
1xBet 2.24 3.16 3.22
Bet365 2.15 3.10 3.20
BetVictor 2.20 3.13 3.13
Betano 2.20 3.05 3.05
Betfair 2.20 3.10 3.00
Dafabet 2.21 3.25 3.40
Marathonbet 2.22 3.16 3.20
Pinnacle 2.21 3.09 3.17
SBO 2.06 3.00 3.04
Superbet 2.20 3.10 3.20
Unibet 2.17 3.05 3.00
William Hill 2.15 2.90 3.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.20 —
X 3.10 ▼ -0.03
2 3.13 —

3 snapshots recorded, from .