Sagan Tosu
vs
Kataller Toyama
4 – 0 Full time
Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama
| Probability | Sagan Tosu | Draw | Kataller Toyama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.8% | 28.6% | 19.6% |
| Market | 35.0% | 29.9% | 35.1% |
| Final | 39.2% | 29.6% | 31.2% |
| Edge | +16.9% | -1.4% | -15.5% |
Why Sagan Tosu
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.82.
- The market prices Sagan Tosu below the model: +16.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sagan Tosu and Kataller Toyama expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.35
Sagan Tosu and Kataller Toyama attack and defence ratings
Sagan Tosu
Kataller Toyama
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama: result vs prediction
Sagan Tosu 4 – 0 Kataller Toyama
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other 2nd Round fixtures
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Okinawa SV — match page
- Nagoya Grampus vs Gainare Tottori — team news & stats
- Cerezo Osaka vs FC Gifu
- Tokushima Vortis v FC Tokushima — match page
- Machida Zelvia vs Grulla Morioka — team news & stats
- Tokyo Verdy vs Thespakusatsu Gunma
- Yokohama FC v Criacao Shinjuku — match page
- Consadole Sapporo vs Ventforet Kofu — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sagan Tosu | 39.2% | 2.55 | +16.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.2% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sagan Tosu | 39.2% |
| Draw | 29.6% | |
| Kataller Toyama | 31.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.1% |
| No | 54.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sagan Tosu win | 28.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 47.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.3% |
| 1-1 | 13.3% | |
| 2-0 | 10.9% |
Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama stats
Sagan Tosu and Kataller Toyama recent form
| Sagan Tosu |
LW |
| Kataller Toyama |
LWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.
Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | Kataller Toyama | Sagan Tosu | J2 League | 3-1 |
| 2025-03-23 | Sagan Tosu | Kataller Toyama | J2 League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sagan Tosu vs Kataller Toyama odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.0%, draw 29.9%, away 35.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.52 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| 1xBet | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.56 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 2.90 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.05 | 2.55 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.15 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.56 |
| Pinnacle | 2.56 | 3.30 | 2.51 |
| SBO | 2.48 | 2.85 | 2.52 |
| Superbet | 2.57 | 3.00 | 2.70 |
| Unibet | 2.45 | 3.00 | 2.65 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 2.90 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .