Garuda Lions
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Emperor Cup · Full time ·Round of 32

Vissel Kobe vs Sagan Tosu

1 – 0 Full time

28′Y. Kuwasaki
46′R. KomatsuY. Osako
46′Y. KuwasakiY. Ideguchi
46′H. NakaharaR. Izawa
46′M. Hidaka
51′Y. Ideguchi
57′M. HidakaY. Muto
65′N. MatsumotoA. Toyoda
65′K. JojoK. Nishizawa
71′Jean PatricDiego
71′Y. NaraharaK. Sakamoto
77′R. MorishitaK. Abe
78′Erik
78′T. AndoM. Yoshida
87′T. IwanamiI. Takahashi
87′CaetanoT. Yamakawa

Noevir Stadium, Kobe

Vissel Kobe 61%
Draw 24%
Sagan Tosu 15%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Vissel Kobe vs Sagan Tosu overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Vissel Kobe vs Sagan Tosu

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityVissel KobeDrawSagan Tosu
Model56.9%28.2%15.0%
Market62.7%22.1%15.3%
Final61.2%23.6%15.2%
Edge-5.8%+6.1%-0.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Vissel Kobe

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.66.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Vissel Kobe ↓ / Sagan Tosu → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 13% 1 16% 12% 2 13% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 87%
2+ goals 65%
3+ goals 37%
No goals 13%

Vissel Kobe and Sagan Tosu expected goals

Vissel Kobe 1.51
Sagan Tosu 0.66

Total expected goals: 2.17

Vissel Kobe and Sagan Tosu attack and defence ratings

Vissel Kobe

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 0.58 -42%

Sagan Tosu

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 0.70 -30%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Vissel Kobe vs Sagan Tosu: result vs prediction

Vissel Kobe 1 – 0 Sagan Tosu

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 32 fixtures

Emperor Cup

Before and after this match

Vissel Kobe vs Sagan Tosu markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Vissel Kobe 61.2% 1.63 -5.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 63.0% 1.59 — —
Both teams to score No 61.3% 1.63 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 84.8% 1.18 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.1% 2.32 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Vissel Kobe61.2%
Draw23.6%
Sagan Tosu15.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.537.0%
Under 2.563.0%
Both teams to scoreYes38.7%
No61.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)84.8%
12 (either side)76.4%
X2 (draw or away)38.8%
Handicap -1Vissel Kobe win30.6%
Push (exactly one goal)26.3%
Loss43.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-016.1%
2-013.1%
0-012.5%

Vissel Kobe vs Sagan Tosu stats

Vissel Kobe and Sagan Tosu recent form

newest first
Vissel Kobe WWWWWW
Sagan Tosu WLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Vissel Kobe vs Sagan Tosu head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

8Vissel Kobe wins 2Draws 0Sagan Tosu wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2024-08-25Vissel KobeSagan TosuJ1 League2-0
2024-04-03Sagan TosuVissel KobeJ1 League0-0
2023-07-16Vissel KobeSagan TosuJ1 League2-1
2023-03-18Sagan TosuVissel KobeJ1 League0-1
2022-07-02Sagan TosuVissel KobeJ1 League0-2
2022-05-14Vissel KobeSagan TosuJ1 League4-0
2021-12-04Sagan TosuVissel KobeJ1 League0-2
2021-05-30Vissel KobeSagan TosuJ1 League1-1
2020-09-23Vissel KobeSagan TosuJ1 League4-3
2020-07-08Sagan TosuVissel KobeJ1 League0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Vissel Kobe vs Sagan Tosu odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 62.7%, draw 22.1%, away 15.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.48 4.15 6.13
Bet365 1.45 4.00 5.75
BetVictor 1.45 4.20 6.00
Betano 1.47 4.00 5.60
Betfair 1.40 4.20 6.00
Marathonbet 1.47 4.15 6.05
Pinnacle 1.48 4.21 6.15
William Hill 1.44 3.80 5.80

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.