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Emperor Cup · Full time ·Round of 32

Machida Zelvia vs Tochigi City

2 – 1 Full time

23′M. Duke
25′Kato Jo
56′T. NguenY. Masukake
56′K. YamashitaA. Yoshida
56′M. SuzukiY. Koike
63′M. DukeK. Ogawa
63′T. NishimuraH. Mae
69′Y. Koike
70′K. Ogawa
76′R. OkuiH. Suzuki
81′Y. OkaniwaT. Mori
81′T. OuwejanH. Mochizuki
87′K. SentoF. Tokumura
90′K. Ogawa

Machida GION Stadium, Machida

Machida Zelvia 68%
Draw 19%
Tochigi City 14%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Machida Zelvia vs Tochigi City overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Machida Zelvia vs Tochigi City

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMachida ZelviaDrawTochigi City
Model72.6%17.2%10.2%
Market66.2%19.2%14.6%
Final67.8%18.7%13.5%
Edge+6.4%-2.0%-4.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Machida Zelvia

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.56 vs 0.90.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Machida Zelvia below the model: +6.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Machida Zelvia ↓ / Tochigi City → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 8% 2 10% 9% 3 9% 8% 4+ 10% 9%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

Machida Zelvia and Tochigi City expected goals

Machida Zelvia 2.56
Tochigi City 0.90

Total expected goals: 3.46

Machida Zelvia and Tochigi City attack and defence ratings

Machida Zelvia

Attack 1.25 +25%
Defence 0.79 -21%

Tochigi City

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Machida Zelvia vs Tochigi City: result vs prediction

Machida Zelvia 2 – 1 Tochigi City

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 32 fixtures

Emperor Cup

Before and after this match

Machida Zelvia vs Tochigi City markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Machida Zelvia 67.8% 1.48 +6.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 67.2% 1.49 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.4% 1.81 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 86.5% 1.16 — —
Handicap -1 Machida Zelvia win 51.7% 1.93 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Machida Zelvia67.8%
Draw18.7%
Tochigi City13.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567.2%
Under 2.532.8%
Both teams to scoreYes55.4%
No44.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)86.5%
12 (either side)81.3%
X2 (draw or away)32.2%
Handicap -1Machida Zelvia win51.7%
Push (exactly one goal)20.9%
Loss27.4%
Correct score (top 3)2-010.3%
2-19.3%
3-08.8%

Machida Zelvia vs Tochigi City stats

Machida Zelvia and Tochigi City recent form

newest first
Machida Zelvia LDWWDW
Tochigi City W

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Machida Zelvia vs Tochigi City head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Machida Zelvia vs Tochigi City odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 66.2%, draw 19.2%, away 14.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.39 4.75 6.67
Bet365 1.33 5.00 6.00
Betano 1.38 4.60 5.90
Betfair 1.33 4.75 6.50
Marathonbet 1.38 4.75 6.60
Pinnacle 1.44 4.73 5.95

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.