J1 League
·
Full time
·Matchday 9
Kyoto Sanga
vs
Machida Zelvia
0 – 1 Full time
| 26′ | Tete Yengi | ||
| 29′ | Rafael PapagaioAlex Souza | ||
| 58′ | Takuma NishimuraTakahiro Akimoto | ||
| 58′ | Hotaka NakamuraHenry Heroki Mochizuki | ||
| 69′ | Ren KatoEverton Maceió | ||
| 69′ | Ryuma NakanoSung-jun Yoon | ||
| 70′ | Everton Maceió | ||
| 70′ | Ranko Popović | ||
| 72′ | Keiya SentoNeta Lavi | ||
| 72′ | Tete YengiMitchell Duke | ||
| 81′ | Hiroto MorookaMarco Túlio | ||
| 86′ | Takahiro Akimoto | ||
| 89′ | Thomas OuwejanIbrahim Drešević |
Kyoto Sanga
24%
Draw
26%
Machida Zelvia
50%
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 38 | Possession % | 62 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 6 |
| 6 | Offsides | 0 |
| 4 | Saves | 4 |
| 259 | Accurate passes | 465 |
Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia
| Probability | Kyoto Sanga | Draw | Machida Zelvia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.2% | 23.2% | 55.6% |
| Market | 25.0% | 26.3% | 48.7% |
| Final | 24.1% | 25.5% | 50.4% |
| Edge | -1.0% | -0.8% | +1.7% |
Why Machida Zelvia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.21.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
84%
3+ goals
63%
No goals
5%
Kyoto Sanga and Machida Zelvia expected goals
Kyoto Sanga
1.21
Machida Zelvia
2.03
Total expected goals: 3.24
Kyoto Sanga and Machida Zelvia attack and defence ratings
Kyoto Sanga
Attack
0.92 -8%
Defence
1.09 +9%
Machida Zelvia
Attack
1.44 +44%
Defence
0.90 -10%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia: result vs prediction
Kyoto Sanga 0 – 1 Machida Zelvia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Kashima vs Gamba Osaka — team news & stats
- Kashiwa Reysol vs Vissel Kobe
- Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos — team news & stats
- Avispa Fukuoka v Fagiano Okayama — match page
- FC Tokyo v Urawa — match page
- JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki
- Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-pulse
- Tokyo Verdy v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — match page
Before and after this match
Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Machida Zelvia | 50.4% | 1.98 | +1.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.4% | 2.25 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kyoto Sanga | 24.1% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| Machida Zelvia | 50.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.8% |
| No | 38.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Machida Zelvia win | 33.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 44.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 0-2 | 8.1% |
Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia stats
Kyoto Sanga and Machida Zelvia recent form
| Kyoto Sanga |
WWLLDW |
| Machida Zelvia |
WLDWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kyoto Sanga and Machida Zelvia going into this match
Kyoto Sanga record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Machida Zelvia record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Kyoto Sanga wins
2Draws
4Machida Zelvia wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Machida Zelvia | Kyoto Sanga | J-League Cup | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-23 | Kyoto Sanga | Machida Zelvia | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-06 | Machida Zelvia | Kyoto Sanga | Emperor Cup | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-07 | Machida Zelvia | Kyoto Sanga | J1 League | 1-2 |
| 2024-11-30 | Machida Zelvia | Kyoto Sanga | J1 League | 1-0 |
| 2024-05-06 | Kyoto Sanga | Machida Zelvia | J1 League | 0-3 |
| 2021-08-09 | Kyoto Sanga | Machida Zelvia | J2 League | 2-1 |
| 2021-04-11 | Machida Zelvia | Kyoto Sanga | J2 League | 0-1 |
| 2020-10-14 | Machida Zelvia | Kyoto Sanga | J2 League | 3-0 |
| 2020-08-02 | Kyoto Sanga | Machida Zelvia | J2 League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.0%, draw 26.3%, away 48.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.68 | 3.78 | 1.96 |
| Bet365 | 3.90 | 3.50 | 1.90 |
| BetVictor | 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.91 |
| Betano | 3.75 | 3.40 | 1.95 |
| Betfair | 3.70 | 3.50 | 1.91 |
| Dafabet | 3.90 | 3.65 | 1.96 |
| Marathonbet | 3.58 | 3.68 | 1.91 |
| Pinnacle | 3.86 | 3.72 | 1.97 |
| SBO | 3.64 | 3.43 | 1.92 |
| William Hill | 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.73 ▼ -0.02
X
3.55 ▼ -0.25
2
1.92 ▲ +0.06
13 snapshots recorded, from .