Kyoto Sanga
vs
Machida Zelvia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Machida Zelvia
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia
| Probability | Kyoto Sanga | Draw | Machida Zelvia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.0% | 23.1% | 55.9% |
| Market | 25.2% | 26.1% | 48.7% |
| Final | 24.1% | 25.3% | 50.5% |
| Edge | -4.2% | -2.9% | +7.1% |
Why Machida Zelvia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.20.
- The market prices Machida Zelvia below the model: +7.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia match preview
Kyoto Sanga faces Machida Zelvia in a J1 League matchup where the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter. Kyoto Sanga has a 24% chance of winning, while Machida Zelvia is favored with a 51% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with a 10% likelihood. The expected goals suggest Kyoto Sanga will score 1.20 goals, compared to Machida Zelvia's 2.04.
In terms of recent form, Kyoto Sanga has recorded two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches, while Machida Zelvia has three wins, a loss, and a draw. The head-to-head record over the last ten encounters shows parity, with both teams securing four wins each and two draws. The model suggests a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kyoto Sanga and Machida Zelvia expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.24
Kyoto Sanga and Machida Zelvia attack and defence ratings
Kyoto Sanga
Machida Zelvia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Kashima vs Gamba Osaka — team news & stats
- Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos — team news & stats
- Avispa Fukuoka v Fagiano Okayama — match page
- FC Tokyo v Urawa — match page
- JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki
- Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-pulse
- Tokyo Verdy v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — match page
- Kawasaki Frontale v Nagoya Grampus — match page
Before and after this match
Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Machida Zelvia | 50.5% | 1.98 | +7.1% | 2.02 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.1% | 2.27 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kyoto Sanga | 24.1% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Machida Zelvia | 50.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.7% |
| No | 38.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Machida Zelvia win | 34.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 44.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 0-2 | 8.2% |
Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia stats
Kyoto Sanga and Machida Zelvia recent form
| Kyoto Sanga |
WWLLDW |
| Machida Zelvia |
WLDWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kyoto Sanga and Machida Zelvia season so far
Kyoto Sanga record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Machida Zelvia record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Machida Zelvia | Kyoto Sanga | J-League Cup | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-23 | Kyoto Sanga | Machida Zelvia | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-06 | Machida Zelvia | Kyoto Sanga | Emperor Cup | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-07 | Machida Zelvia | Kyoto Sanga | J1 League | 1-2 |
| 2024-11-30 | Machida Zelvia | Kyoto Sanga | J1 League | 1-0 |
| 2024-05-06 | Kyoto Sanga | Machida Zelvia | J1 League | 0-3 |
| 2021-08-09 | Kyoto Sanga | Machida Zelvia | J2 League | 2-1 |
| 2021-04-11 | Machida Zelvia | Kyoto Sanga | J2 League | 0-1 |
| 2020-10-14 | Machida Zelvia | Kyoto Sanga | J2 League | 3-0 |
| 2020-08-02 | Kyoto Sanga | Machida Zelvia | J2 League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.2%, draw 26.1%, away 48.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.68 | 3.78 | 1.96 |
| Bet365 | 3.80 | 3.40 | 1.90 |
| BetVictor | 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.93 |
| Betano | 3.45 | 3.50 | 2.02 |
| Betfair | 3.80 | 3.60 | 1.90 |
| Dafabet | 3.80 | 3.65 | 1.99 |
| Marathonbet | 3.58 | 3.68 | 1.91 |
| Pinnacle | 3.77 | 3.83 | 1.94 |
| SBO | 3.38 | 3.21 | 1.92 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.50 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .