Mito Hollyhock
vs
Shimizu S-pulse
Garuda Lions Prediction: Shimizu S-pulse
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-pulse overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-pulse
| Probability | Mito Hollyhock | Draw | Shimizu S-pulse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.1% | 31.8% | 39.1% |
| Market | 35.4% | 28.7% | 35.9% |
| Final | 33.8% | 29.5% | 36.7% |
| Edge | -6.3% | +3.1% | +3.2% |
Why Shimizu S-pulse
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Shimizu S-pulse below the model: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-pulse match preview
In the upcoming J1 League match, Mito Hollyhock faces Shimizu S-pulse, with model probabilities indicating a close contest. Mito Hollyhock has a 31% chance of winning, while Shimizu S-pulse is slightly favored at 36%. The likelihood of a draw stands at 33%. The most probable scoreline is 0-1, with a 12% chance of occurring.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Mito Hollyhock recording two losses, a draw, and two wins in their last five matches, while Shimizu S-pulse has won three out of their last five. Expected goals suggest a tight match, with Mito Hollyhock at 1.00 and Shimizu S-pulse at 1.09. The probability for over 2.5 goals is 35%, and both teams scoring is at 43%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mito Hollyhock and Shimizu S-pulse expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.17
Mito Hollyhock and Shimizu S-pulse attack and defence ratings
Mito Hollyhock
Shimizu S-pulse
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Kashima vs Gamba Osaka — team news & stats
- Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos — team news & stats
- Avispa Fukuoka v Fagiano Okayama — match page
- FC Tokyo v Urawa — match page
- Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia — team news & stats
- JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki
- Tokyo Verdy v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — match page
- Kawasaki Frontale v Nagoya Grampus — match page
Before and after this match
Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-pulse markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shimizu S-pulse | 36.7% | 2.72 | +3.2% | 2.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.1% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mito Hollyhock | 33.8% |
| Draw | 29.5% | |
| Shimizu S-pulse | 36.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.9% |
| No | 55.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Shimizu S-pulse win | 17.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 60.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.7% |
| 0-0 | 12.7% | |
| 0-1 | 12.2% |
Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-pulse stats
Mito Hollyhock and Shimizu S-pulse recent form
| Mito Hollyhock |
LLDWDL |
| Shimizu S-pulse |
WWWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mito Hollyhock and Shimizu S-pulse season so far
Mito Hollyhock record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Shimizu S-pulse record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-pulse head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-pulse odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.4%, draw 28.7%, away 35.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.72 | 3.28 | 2.67 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.25 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.65 | 3.25 | 2.60 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.65 | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| Pinnacle | 2.73 | 3.25 | 2.67 |
| SBO | 2.50 | 3.04 | 2.50 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .