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Emperor Cup · Full time ·Round of 32

Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki

2 – 1 Full time

10′Won Du-JaeDiego
13′K. Kitagawa
27′Y. Egawa
39′Thiago
46′ThiagoR. Yamasaki
51′R. Germain
65′K. KitagawaY. Shimamoto
65′K. InoueT. Fujii
68′T. MatsumotoK. Yasuda
68′H. YamaguchiDiego Pituca
70′M. Brunetti
80′R. GermainK. Kinoshita
80′M. BrunettiY. Honda
87′R. YamadaH. Nabeshima
91′S. YonedaY. Iwasaki
101′DiegoK. Kozuka
106′I. AraiR. Shindo
109′H. Sugai
116′M. Yumiba

IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka

Shimizu S-pulse 45%
Draw 28%
V-varen Nagasaki 27%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityShimizu S-pulseDrawV-varen Nagasaki
Model52.8%29.1%18.1%
Market42.5%28.2%29.3%
Final45.1%28.4%26.5%
Edge+10.3%+0.9%-11.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Shimizu S-pulse

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.75.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Shimizu S-pulse below the model: +10.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Shimizu S-puls ↓ / V-varen Nagasa → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 1 15% 13% 2 12% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 66%
3+ goals 38%
No goals 12%

Shimizu S-pulse and V-varen Nagasaki expected goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1.47
V-varen Nagasaki 0.75

Total expected goals: 2.22

Shimizu S-pulse and V-varen Nagasaki attack and defence ratings

Shimizu S-pulse

Attack 0.66 -34%
Defence 0.80 -20%

V-varen Nagasaki

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki: result vs prediction

Shimizu S-pulse 2 – 1 V-varen Nagasaki

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 32 fixtures

Emperor Cup

Before and after this match

Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Shimizu S-pulse 45.1% 2.22 +10.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 61.8% 1.62 — —
Both teams to score No 58.0% 1.72 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 73.5% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.9% 2.13 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Shimizu S-pulse45.1%
Draw28.4%
V-varen Nagasaki26.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.538.2%
Under 2.561.8%
Both teams to scoreYes42.0%
No58.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)73.5%
12 (either side)71.6%
X2 (draw or away)54.9%
Handicap -1Shimizu S-pulse win27.7%
Push (exactly one goal)25.3%
Loss46.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-014.7%
1-113.2%
0-012.1%

Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki stats

Shimizu S-pulse and V-varen Nagasaki recent form

newest first
Shimizu S-pulse WWLDLW
V-varen Nagasaki DWLDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Shimizu S-pulse wins 3Draws 3V-varen Nagasaki wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-29Shimizu S-pulseV-varen NagasakiJ1 League1-2
2026-04-05V-varen NagasakiShimizu S-pulseJ1 League0-3
2024-09-07Shimizu S-pulseV-varen NagasakiJ2 League1-1
2024-03-10V-varen NagasakiShimizu S-pulseJ2 League4-1
2023-07-01Shimizu S-pulseV-varen NagasakiJ2 League3-2
2023-03-04V-varen NagasakiShimizu S-pulseJ2 League1-1
2018-12-01V-varen NagasakiShimizu S-pulseJ1 League4-4
2018-04-11Shimizu S-pulseV-varen NagasakiJ1 League0-1
2016-08-11Shimizu S-pulseV-varen NagasakiJ2 League2-0
2016-03-06V-varen NagasakiShimizu S-pulseJ2 League0-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.5%, draw 28.2%, away 29.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.20 3.20 3.22
Bet365 2.05 3.30 3.00
BetVictor 2.10 3.25 3.20
Betfair 2.10 3.30 3.00
Marathonbet 2.18 3.20 3.20
Pinnacle 2.18 3.40 3.49
SBO 2.21 2.93 2.80
William Hill 2.10 3.00 3.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.14 ▼ -0.04
X 3.23 ▲ +0.02
2 3.10 ▼ -0.03

2 snapshots recorded, from .