J1 League
·
Full time
·Matchday 8
V-varen Nagasaki
vs
Cerezo Osaka
1 – 1 Full time
| 17′ | Shinnosuke HatanakaJavi Hernández | ||
| 17′ | Riku Yamada | ||
| 34′ | Matheus Jesus | ||
| 41′ | Jackson Irvine | ||
| 50′ | Shunya Yoneda | ||
| 51′ | Lucas Fernandes | ||
| 58′ | Shunya YonedaAsahi Masuyama | ||
| 58′ | Riku YamadaDiego Pituca | ||
| 68′ | Kosuke Nakamura | ||
| 73′ | Thiago SantanaTenmu Matsumoto | ||
| 77′ | Lucas FernandesThiago Andrade | ||
| 82′ | Matheus JesusRyogo Yamasaki | ||
| 83′ | Ikki AraiKanta Doi | ||
| 84′ | Dion Cools | ||
| 88′ | Kosei OkazawaSatoki Uejo |
V-varen Nagasaki
30%
Draw
26%
Cerezo Osaka
44%
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 44 | Possession % | 56 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 6 | Offsides | 1 |
| 5 | Saves | 0 |
| 306 | Accurate passes | 388 |
V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka overview
Garuda Lions analysis: V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka
| Probability | V-varen Nagasaki | Draw | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.4% | 24.5% | 39.1% |
| Market | 28.3% | 26.7% | 45.1% |
| Final | 30.3% | 26.1% | 43.6% |
| Edge | +8.1% | -2.1% | -6.0% |
Why Cerezo Osaka
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
86%
3+ goals
66%
No goals
4%
V-varen Nagasaki and Cerezo Osaka expected goals
V-varen Nagasaki
1.67
Cerezo Osaka
1.74
Total expected goals: 3.40
V-varen Nagasaki and Cerezo Osaka attack and defence ratings
V-varen Nagasaki
Attack
1.03 +3%
Defence
1.19 +19%
Cerezo Osaka
Attack
1.11 +11%
Defence
1.13 +13%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka: result vs prediction
V-varen Nagasaki 1 – 1 Cerezo Osaka
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashima
- Shimizu S-pulse vs JEF United Chiba
- Urawa v Tokyo Verdy — match page
- FC Tokyo v Nagoya Grampus — match page
- Fagiano Okayama vs Kyoto Sanga — team news & stats
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Mito Hollyhock
- Gamba Osaka vs Vissel Kobe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerezo Osaka | 43.6% | 2.30 | -6.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.1% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.8% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | V-varen Nagasaki | 30.3% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Cerezo Osaka | 43.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.8% |
| No | 32.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cerezo Osaka win | 20.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.3% | |
| Loss | 60.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | |
| 2-1 | 8.0% |
V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka stats
V-varen Nagasaki and Cerezo Osaka recent form
| V-varen Nagasaki |
WLDLWL |
| Cerezo Osaka |
LDWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
V-varen Nagasaki and Cerezo Osaka going into this match
V-varen Nagasaki record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Cerezo Osaka record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
3V-varen Nagasaki wins
0Draws
5Cerezo Osaka wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Cerezo Osaka | V-varen Nagasaki | J1 League | 3-2 |
| 2026-02-28 | V-varen Nagasaki | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League | 1-0 |
| 2018-08-19 | V-varen Nagasaki | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League | 0-2 |
| 2018-05-05 | Cerezo Osaka | V-varen Nagasaki | J1 League | 3-1 |
| 2016-09-11 | Cerezo Osaka | V-varen Nagasaki | J2 League | 2-0 |
| 2016-06-08 | V-varen Nagasaki | Cerezo Osaka | J2 League | 1-2 |
| 2015-11-14 | V-varen Nagasaki | Cerezo Osaka | J2 League | 2-0 |
| 2015-05-17 | Cerezo Osaka | V-varen Nagasaki | J2 League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.3%, draw 26.7%, away 45.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.38 | 3.55 | 2.12 |
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.98 |
| Betfair | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Marathonbet | 3.30 | 3.46 | 2.07 |
| Pinnacle | 3.35 | 3.59 | 2.19 |
| SBO | 3.11 | 3.17 | 2.03 |
| William Hill | 3.25 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.30 ▼ -0.30
X
3.50 ▼ -0.10
2
2.07 ▲ +0.12
14 snapshots recorded, from .