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J1 League · Full time ·Matchday 7

V-varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus

2 – 0 Full time

36′Matheus Jesus
57′Thiago Santana
61′Yuya YamagishiTomoya Koyamatsu
61′Shuhei TokumotoTaichi Kikuchi
61′Ryuji IzumiYuki Nogami
62′Thiago Santana
68′Katsuhiro NakayamaTsukasa Morishima
80′Thiago SantanaTenmu Matsumoto
83′Hidemasa KodaShungo Sugiura
86′Matheus JesusRyogo Yamasaki
86′Riku YamadaDiego Pituca
89′Hijiri OnagaTakashi Sawada
89′Motoki HasegawaKanta Doi
90′Haruya Fujii

Peace Stadium, NagasakiReferee: Akihiko Ikeuchi, Japan

V-varen Nagasaki 31%
Draw 25%
Nagoya Grampus 44%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

16 Shots 12
9 Shots on target 2
32 Possession % 68
3 Corners 4
17 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 0
2 Saves 6
262 Accurate passes 584

V-varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus overview

Garuda Lions analysis: V-varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityV-varen NagasakiDrawNagoya Grampus
Model45.7%22.8%31.5%
Market26.8%25.5%47.8%
Final31.5%24.8%43.7%
Edge+18.9%-2.7%-16.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Nagoya Grampus

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

V-varen Nagasa ↓ / Nagoya Grampus → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 9% 7% 2 5% 8% 7% 3 6% 5% 4+ 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 3%

V-varen Nagasaki and Nagoya Grampus expected goals

V-varen Nagasaki 2.06
Nagoya Grampus 1.70

Total expected goals: 3.76

V-varen Nagasaki and Nagoya Grampus attack and defence ratings

V-varen Nagasaki

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.32 +32%

Nagoya Grampus

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 1.44 +44%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

V-varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus: result vs prediction

V-varen Nagasaki 2 – 0 Nagoya Grampus

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

J1 League

Before and after this match

V-varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Nagoya Grampus 43.7% 2.29 -16.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 72.3% 1.38 — —
Both teams to score Yes 72.0% 1.39 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.2% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 68.5% 1.46 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2V-varen Nagasaki31.5%
Draw24.8%
Nagoya Grampus43.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572.3%
Under 2.527.7%
Both teams to scoreYes72.0%
No28.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)56.3%
12 (either side)75.2%
X2 (draw or away)68.5%
Handicap -1Nagoya Grampus win16.0%
Push (exactly one goal)15.5%
Loss68.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.0%
2-18.4%
2-27.1%

V-varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus stats

V-varen Nagasaki and Nagoya Grampus recent form

newest first
V-varen Nagasaki LDLWLL
Nagoya Grampus LLWLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

V-varen Nagasaki and Nagoya Grampus going into this match

league record before kick-off

V-varen Nagasaki record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

Nagoya Grampus record

  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

V-varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

3V-varen Nagasaki wins 1Draws 2Nagoya Grampus wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-03V-varen NagasakiNagoya GrampusJ1 League1-2
2026-02-21Nagoya GrampusV-varen NagasakiJ1 League1-3
2018-09-15Nagoya GrampusV-varen NagasakiJ1 League3-4
2018-05-12V-varen NagasakiNagoya GrampusJ1 League3-0
2017-10-21V-varen NagasakiNagoya GrampusJ2 League1-1
2017-06-25Nagoya GrampusV-varen NagasakiJ2 League2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

V-varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 26.8%, draw 25.5%, away 47.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.53 3.76 2.01
Bet365 3.50 3.60 1.95
BetVictor 3.50 3.75 2.00
Betano 3.50 3.50 2.00
Betfair 3.30 3.70 1.95
Marathonbet 3.45 3.68 1.96
Pinnacle 3.59 3.82 2.03
SBO 3.43 3.53 1.94
William Hill 3.40 3.50 1.95

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.50 ▲ +0.29
X 3.68 ▲ +0.07
2 1.96 ▼ -0.14

4 snapshots recorded, from .