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J1 League · Full time ·Matchday 7

Kyoto Sanga vs Kashiwa Reysol

2 – 3 Full time

3′Rafael Papagaio
21′Shimpei Fukuoka
32′Taiyo Koga
33′Rafael Papagaio
45′Temma Matsuda
45′Shota FujioYusuke Segawa
45′Wataru HaradaSeiya Baba
59′Tojiro Kubo
63′Masaki Watai
64′Alex SouzaHaruki Arai
67′Yusuke Segawa
71′Yusuke Segawa
75′Masaki WataiHinata Yamauchi
78′Keita EndoKenshin Yuba
79′Kodai NagataHisashi Appiah Tawiah
80′Rafael Papagaio
85′Nobuteru NakagawaYudai Konishi
90′Temma MatsudaShun Nagasawa
90′Shimpei FukuokaEverton Maceió
90′Ren KatoSota Yamamoto

Sanga Stadium by Kyocera, KameokaReferee: Atsushi Uemura, Japan

Kyoto Sanga 20%
Draw 24%
Kashiwa Reysol 56%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 19
5 Shots on target 6
55 Possession % 45
7 Corners 5
13 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 3
3 Saves 3
302 Accurate passes 402

Kyoto Sanga vs Kashiwa Reysol overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Kyoto Sanga vs Kashiwa Reysol

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityKyoto SangaDrawKashiwa Reysol
Model21.9%25.5%52.5%
Market19.7%23.8%56.5%
Final20.2%24.2%55.5%
Edge+2.2%+1.8%-4.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Kashiwa Reysol

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.08.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Kyoto Sanga ↓ / Kashiwa Reysol → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 9% 9% 1 12% 10% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 54%
No goals 7%

Kyoto Sanga and Kashiwa Reysol expected goals

Kyoto Sanga 1.08
Kashiwa Reysol 1.78

Total expected goals: 2.86

Kyoto Sanga and Kashiwa Reysol attack and defence ratings

Kyoto Sanga

Attack 0.79 -21%
Defence 1.20 +20%

Kashiwa Reysol

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Kyoto Sanga vs Kashiwa Reysol: result vs prediction

Kyoto Sanga 2 – 3 Kashiwa Reysol

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

J1 League

Before and after this match

Kyoto Sanga vs Kashiwa Reysol markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Kashiwa Reysol 55.5% 1.80 -4.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 54.5% 1.84 — —
Both teams to score Yes 56.1% 1.78 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 79.8% 1.25 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.5% 2.11 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Kyoto Sanga20.2%
Draw24.2%
Kashiwa Reysol55.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554.5%
Under 2.545.5%
Both teams to scoreYes56.1%
No43.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)44.5%
12 (either side)75.8%
X2 (draw or away)79.8%
Handicap -1Kashiwa Reysol win30.0%
Push (exactly one goal)22.6%
Loss47.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.1%
1-29.8%
0-19.1%

Kyoto Sanga vs Kashiwa Reysol stats

Kyoto Sanga and Kashiwa Reysol recent form

newest first
Kyoto Sanga LDWWLD
Kashiwa Reysol LLWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Kyoto Sanga and Kashiwa Reysol going into this match

league record before kick-off

Kyoto Sanga record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

Kashiwa Reysol record

  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Kyoto Sanga vs Kashiwa Reysol head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Kyoto Sanga wins 5Draws 3Kashiwa Reysol wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-06-06Kashiwa ReysolKyoto SangaJ1 League0-1
2026-05-30Kyoto SangaKashiwa ReysolJ1 League2-6
2025-06-21Kashiwa ReysolKyoto SangaJ1 League3-3
2025-04-02Kyoto SangaKashiwa ReysolJ1 League1-1
2024-06-26Kyoto SangaKashiwa ReysolJ1 League2-2
2024-02-25Kashiwa ReysolKyoto SangaJ1 League1-1
2023-08-06Kyoto SangaKashiwa ReysolJ1 League0-1
2023-04-29Kashiwa ReysolKyoto SangaJ1 League1-1
2022-08-06Kyoto SangaKashiwa ReysolJ1 League1-2
2022-05-18Kashiwa ReysolKyoto SangaJ-League Cup0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Kyoto Sanga vs Kashiwa Reysol odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 22.9%, draw 25.4%, away 51.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.95 3.65 1.85
1xBet 4.76 4.01 1.70
888Sport 3.90 3.50 1.83
Bet365 5.25 3.90 1.65
BetVictor 4.80 4.00 1.67
Betano 4.05 3.65 1.83
Betfair 3.90 3.75 1.85
Dafabet 4.20 3.70 1.89
Marathonbet 4.65 3.92 1.66
Pinnacle 4.90 4.20 1.68
SBO 3.50 3.28 1.86
Superbet 4.00 3.55 1.87
Unibet 3.90 3.60 1.82
William Hill 4.50 3.80 1.65

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.78 ▲ +0.68
X 3.96 ▲ +0.25
2 1.67 ▼ -0.16

9 snapshots recorded, from .