J1 League
·
Full time
·Matchday 8
Fagiano Okayama
vs
Kyoto Sanga
1 – 2 Full time
| 10′ | João Pedro | ||
| 18′ | Yugo Tatsuta | ||
| 45′ | Na Sang-Ho | ||
| 45′ | Ryuma NakanoAlex Souza | ||
| 45′ | Haruki AraiTemma Matsuda | ||
| 50′ | Rafael Papagaio | ||
| 57′ | Lucas Marcos Meireles | ||
| 60′ | Ataru EsakaLéo Gaúcho | ||
| 69′ | Ibuki FujitaKamiya Yuta | ||
| 69′ | Towa YamaneNoah Kenshin Browne | ||
| 71′ | Ren KatoRyosuke Yamanaka | ||
| 76′ | Yoshitake Suzuki | ||
| 79′ | João PedroShun Nagasawa | ||
| 84′ | Hisashi Appiah TawiahYusuke Ishida | ||
| 89′ | Na Sang-HoDaichi Tagami | ||
| 89′ | Kosuke ShiraiMasaya Matsumoto | ||
| 90′ | Kyo Sato | ||
| 90′ | Alex Souza |
Fagiano Okayama
55%
Draw
25%
Kyoto Sanga
20%
Match stats
| 7 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 36 | Possession % | 64 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 1 | Saves | 0 |
| 192 | Accurate passes | 428 |
Fagiano Okayama vs Kyoto Sanga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fagiano Okayama vs Kyoto Sanga
| Probability | Fagiano Okayama | Draw | Kyoto Sanga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.6% | 20.5% | 12.9% |
| Market | 51.8% | 26.5% | 21.8% |
| Final | 55.5% | 25.0% | 19.6% |
| Edge | +14.8% | -6.0% | -8.8% |
Why Fagiano Okayama
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Fagiano Okayama below the model: +14.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
83%
3+ goals
60%
No goals
5%
Fagiano Okayama and Kyoto Sanga expected goals
Fagiano Okayama
2.22
Kyoto Sanga
0.89
Total expected goals: 3.12
Fagiano Okayama and Kyoto Sanga attack and defence ratings
Fagiano Okayama
Attack
1.21 +21%
Defence
0.80 -20%
Kyoto Sanga
Attack
0.86 -14%
Defence
1.28 +28%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Fagiano Okayama vs Kyoto Sanga: result vs prediction
Fagiano Okayama 1 – 2 Kyoto Sanga
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashima
- Shimizu S-pulse vs JEF United Chiba
- Urawa v Tokyo Verdy — match page
- V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka — team news & stats
- FC Tokyo v Nagoya Grampus — match page
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Mito Hollyhock
- Gamba Osaka vs Vissel Kobe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Fagiano Okayama vs Kyoto Sanga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fagiano Okayama | 55.5% | 1.80 | +14.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.4% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Fagiano Okayama win | 44.1% | 2.27 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fagiano Okayama | 55.5% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Kyoto Sanga | 19.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.7% |
| No | 46.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fagiano Okayama win | 44.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 33.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-1 | 9.7% |
Fagiano Okayama vs Kyoto Sanga stats
Fagiano Okayama and Kyoto Sanga recent form
| Fagiano Okayama |
WWWLWD |
| Kyoto Sanga |
LLDWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fagiano Okayama and Kyoto Sanga going into this match
Fagiano Okayama record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Kyoto Sanga record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Fagiano Okayama vs Kyoto Sanga head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Fagiano Okayama wins
2Draws
5Kyoto Sanga wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Kyoto Sanga | Fagiano Okayama | J1 League | 5-1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Fagiano Okayama | Kyoto Sanga | J1 League | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Kyoto Sanga | Fagiano Okayama | J1 League | 5-0 |
| 2025-02-15 | Fagiano Okayama | Kyoto Sanga | J1 League | 2-0 |
| 2021-11-20 | Fagiano Okayama | Kyoto Sanga | J2 League | 0-0 |
| 2021-06-26 | Kyoto Sanga | Fagiano Okayama | J2 League | 2-0 |
| 2020-11-04 | Kyoto Sanga | Fagiano Okayama | J2 League | 2-1 |
| 2020-07-29 | Fagiano Okayama | Kyoto Sanga | J2 League | 1-1 |
| 2019-09-08 | Fagiano Okayama | Kyoto Sanga | J2 League | 3-0 |
| 2019-05-12 | Kyoto Sanga | Fagiano Okayama | J2 League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fagiano Okayama vs Kyoto Sanga odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.8%, draw 26.5%, away 21.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.84 | 3.63 | 4.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.82 | 3.50 | 4.25 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.79 | 3.54 | 4.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.81 | 3.72 | 4.68 |
| SBO | 1.87 | 3.19 | 3.56 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.81 ▼ -0.09
X
3.54 ▲ +0.04
2
4.30 ▲ +0.40
9 snapshots recorded, from .