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Emperor Cup · Full time ·Round of 32

Fagiano Okayama vs JEF United Chiba

1 – 0 Full time

11′Matheus IndioT. Yasui
18′D. TagamiY. Tatsuta
29′R. Ishio
45′K. Yonekura
50′Kamiya Yuta
59′E. MiyamotoK. Shirai
59′Kamiya YutaOberdan
59′R. SatoNa Sang-Ho
64′M. Matsumoto
70′R. SueyoshiT. Yamane
74′H. GoyaT. Matsumura
74′M. HimenoD. Suzuki
75′K. YonekuraM. Shinada
80′A. EsakaLeo Gaucho
81′Z. IssakaT. Tsukui
82′Leo Gaucho

JFE Harenokuni Stadium, Okayama

Fagiano Okayama 62%
Draw 22%
JEF United Chiba 16%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Fagiano Okayama vs JEF United Chiba overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Fagiano Okayama vs JEF United Chiba

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFagiano OkayamaDrawJEF United Chiba
Model79.2%14.9%6.0%
Market55.7%25.0%19.4%
Final61.6%22.4%16.0%
Edge+23.5%-10.1%-13.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Fagiano Okayama

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 0.61.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Fagiano Okayama below the model: +23.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Fagiano Okayam ↓ / JEF United Chi → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 2 14% 8% 3 12% 7% 4+ 14% 9%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 5%

Fagiano Okayama and JEF United Chiba expected goals

Fagiano Okayama 2.60
JEF United Chiba 0.61

Total expected goals: 3.21

Fagiano Okayama and JEF United Chiba attack and defence ratings

Fagiano Okayama

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 0.78 -22%

JEF United Chiba

Attack 0.74 -26%
Defence 1.15 +15%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Fagiano Okayama vs JEF United Chiba: result vs prediction

Fagiano Okayama 1 – 0 JEF United Chiba

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 32 fixtures

Emperor Cup

Before and after this match

Fagiano Okayama vs JEF United Chiba markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Fagiano Okayama 61.6% 1.62 +23.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 62.1% 1.61 — —
Both teams to score No 56.9% 1.76 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 84.0% 1.19 — —
Handicap -1 Fagiano Okayama win 58.7% 1.70 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Fagiano Okayama61.6%
Draw22.4%
JEF United Chiba16.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562.1%
Under 2.537.9%
Both teams to scoreYes43.1%
No56.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)84.0%
12 (either side)77.6%
X2 (draw or away)38.4%
Handicap -1Fagiano Okayama win58.7%
Push (exactly one goal)20.7%
Loss20.6%
Correct score (top 3)2-013.6%
3-011.8%
1-09.9%

Fagiano Okayama vs JEF United Chiba stats

Fagiano Okayama and JEF United Chiba recent form

newest first
Fagiano Okayama LWWWLW
JEF United Chiba LDWLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Fagiano Okayama vs JEF United Chiba head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Fagiano Okayama wins 3Draws 5JEF United Chiba wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-02JEF United ChibaFagiano OkayamaJ1 League1-2
2024-08-10Fagiano OkayamaJEF United ChibaJ2 League0-0
2024-06-01JEF United ChibaFagiano OkayamaJ2 League2-1
2023-10-01Fagiano OkayamaJEF United ChibaJ2 League0-5
2023-03-25JEF United ChibaFagiano OkayamaJ2 League1-1
2022-07-30Fagiano OkayamaJEF United ChibaJ2 League1-1
2022-05-08JEF United ChibaFagiano OkayamaJ2 League1-0
2021-12-05Fagiano OkayamaJEF United ChibaJ2 League1-3
2021-05-09JEF United ChibaFagiano OkayamaJ2 League4-2
2020-11-01Fagiano OkayamaJEF United ChibaJ2 League3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Fagiano Okayama vs JEF United Chiba odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 55.7%, draw 25.0%, away 19.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.66 3.76 4.74
Bet365 1.55 3.80 5.00
BetVictor 1.65 3.60 4.80
Betfair 1.65 3.60 4.60
Marathonbet 1.64 3.76 4.75
Pinnacle 1.70 3.90 5.05
SBO 1.65 3.26 4.24
William Hill 1.65 3.40 4.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.65 ▼ -0.07
X 3.68 ▲ +0.08
2 4.75 ▲ +0.58

2 snapshots recorded, from .