JEF United Chiba
vs
V-varen Nagasaki
Garuda Lions Prediction: V-varen Nagasaki
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki overview
Garuda Lions analysis: JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki
| Probability | JEF United Chiba | Draw | V-varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.1% | 26.7% | 45.2% |
| Market | 34.5% | 28.1% | 37.4% |
| Final | 32.9% | 27.8% | 39.3% |
| Edge | -6.4% | -1.5% | +7.9% |
Why V-varen Nagasaki
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.25.
- The market prices V-varen Nagasaki below the model: +7.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki match preview
JEF United Chiba faces V-varen Nagasaki in an upcoming J1 League match on October 11, 2026. The model assigns a 29% probability of a JEF United Chiba victory, while V-varen Nagasaki holds a 45% chance of winning. The expected goals for JEF United Chiba is 1.37, compared to V-varen Nagasaki's 1.75, indicating a tighter contest.
In terms of recent form, JEF United Chiba has recorded a sequence of L-D-W-L-L-D, while V-varen Nagasaki shows a mixed record of D-W-L-D-L-W. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 60%, with both teams expected to score at a rate of 63%. The most probable scoreline is 1-2, occurring at a 9% likelihood.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
JEF United Chiba and V-varen Nagasaki expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.88
JEF United Chiba and V-varen Nagasaki attack and defence ratings
JEF United Chiba
V-varen Nagasaki
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Kashima vs Gamba Osaka — team news & stats
- Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos — team news & stats
- Avispa Fukuoka v Fagiano Okayama — match page
- FC Tokyo v Urawa — match page
- Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia — team news & stats
- Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-pulse
- Tokyo Verdy v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — match page
- Kawasaki Frontale v Nagoya Grampus — match page
Before and after this match
JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | V-varen Nagasaki | 39.3% | 2.54 | +7.9% | 2.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | JEF United Chiba | 32.9% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| V-varen Nagasaki | 39.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.4% |
| No | 41.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | V-varen Nagasaki win | 24.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 54.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 0-1 | 8.0% |
JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki stats
JEF United Chiba and V-varen Nagasaki recent form
| JEF United Chiba |
LLDWLL |
| V-varen Nagasaki |
LDWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
JEF United Chiba and V-varen Nagasaki season so far
JEF United Chiba record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
V-varen Nagasaki record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.5%, draw 28.1%, away 37.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.76 | 3.42 | 2.54 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.72 | 3.25 | 2.52 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.45 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.69 | 3.34 | 2.48 |
| Pinnacle | 2.78 | 3.35 | 2.56 |
| SBO | 2.56 | 3.08 | 2.41 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .