J1 League
·
Full time
·Matchday 9
JEF United Chiba
vs
V-varen Nagasaki
1 – 1 Full time
| 5′ | Thiago Santana | ||
| 13′ | Thiago Santana | ||
| 45′ | Riku YamadaKenshin Yasuda | ||
| 53′ | Erison Danilo de Souza | ||
| 56′ | Rikuto IshioKoki Yonekura | ||
| 61′ | Ryosuke ShindoTakuma Ominami | ||
| 65′ | Kanta DoiYusei Egawa | ||
| 69′ | Naohiro SugiyamaZain Issaka | ||
| 69′ | Erison Danilo de SouzaHiroto Goya | ||
| 74′ | Thiago SantanaJonathan Junior | ||
| 79′ | Takuya YasuiYusuke Kobayashi | ||
| 79′ | Takumi TsukuiKazuki Tanaka | ||
| 86′ | Asahi MasuyamaTenmu Matsumoto | ||
| 90′ | Masaru HidakaDaisuke Suzuki | ||
| 90′ | Luiz Eduardo Fleuri Pacheco | ||
| 90′ | Kenshin Yasuda |
JEF United Chiba
33%
Draw
28%
V-varen Nagasaki
39%
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 40 | Possession % | 60 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Saves | 4 |
| 241 | Accurate passes | 429 |
JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki overview
Garuda Lions analysis: JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki
| Probability | JEF United Chiba | Draw | V-varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.3% | 26.7% | 45.0% |
| Market | 34.7% | 28.2% | 37.0% |
| Final | 33.1% | 27.8% | 39.0% |
| Edge | -1.6% | -0.4% | +2.0% |
Why V-varen Nagasaki
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.25.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
79%
3+ goals
55%
No goals
7%
JEF United Chiba and V-varen Nagasaki expected goals
JEF United Chiba
1.25
V-varen Nagasaki
1.63
Total expected goals: 2.88
JEF United Chiba and V-varen Nagasaki attack and defence ratings
JEF United Chiba
Attack
0.74 -26%
Defence
1.29 +29%
V-varen Nagasaki
Attack
0.97 -3%
Defence
1.18 +18%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki: result vs prediction
JEF United Chiba 1 – 1 V-varen Nagasaki
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Kashima vs Gamba Osaka — team news & stats
- Kashiwa Reysol vs Vissel Kobe
- Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos — team news & stats
- Avispa Fukuoka v Fagiano Okayama — match page
- FC Tokyo v Urawa — match page
- Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia — team news & stats
- Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-pulse
- Tokyo Verdy v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — match page
Before and after this match
JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | V-varen Nagasaki | 39.0% | 2.56 | +2.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.2% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | JEF United Chiba | 33.1% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| V-varen Nagasaki | 39.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.6% |
| No | 41.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | V-varen Nagasaki win | 24.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 55.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 0-1 | 8.0% |
JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki stats
JEF United Chiba and V-varen Nagasaki recent form
| JEF United Chiba |
LLDWLL |
| V-varen Nagasaki |
LDWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
JEF United Chiba and V-varen Nagasaki going into this match
JEF United Chiba record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
V-varen Nagasaki record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3JEF United Chiba wins
1Draws
6V-varen Nagasaki wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | JEF United Chiba | V-varen Nagasaki | J2 League | 0-2 |
| 2025-05-25 | V-varen Nagasaki | JEF United Chiba | J2 League | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-03 | JEF United Chiba | V-varen Nagasaki | J2 League | 1-2 |
| 2024-05-25 | V-varen Nagasaki | JEF United Chiba | J2 League | 1-0 |
| 2023-11-12 | JEF United Chiba | V-varen Nagasaki | J2 League | 1-3 |
| 2023-02-18 | V-varen Nagasaki | JEF United Chiba | J2 League | 0-1 |
| 2022-09-03 | JEF United Chiba | V-varen Nagasaki | J2 League | 0-1 |
| 2022-05-25 | V-varen Nagasaki | JEF United Chiba | J2 League | 0-2 |
| 2021-08-28 | JEF United Chiba | V-varen Nagasaki | J2 League | 2-0 |
| 2021-05-15 | V-varen Nagasaki | JEF United Chiba | J2 League | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.7%, draw 28.2%, away 37.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.76 | 3.42 | 2.54 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.72 | 3.25 | 2.52 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.45 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.69 | 3.34 | 2.48 |
| Pinnacle | 2.81 | 3.39 | 2.59 |
| SBO | 2.56 | 3.08 | 2.41 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.70 —
X
3.32 ▼ -0.04
2
2.53 ▲ +0.02
12 snapshots recorded, from .