Cerezo Osaka
vs
Yokohama F. Marinos
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cerezo Osaka
2 β 1 Predicted score Β· 7% model probability
Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos
| Probability | Cerezo Osaka | Draw | Yokohama F. Marinos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.5% | 27.7% | 45.8% |
| Market | 42.0% | 26.2% | 31.8% |
| Final | 38.1% | 26.6% | 35.3% |
| Edge | -15.5% | +1.5% | +14.0% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos match preview
Cerezo Osaka faces Yokohama F. Marinos in a J1 League matchup where the probabilities indicate a competitive contest. Cerezo Osaka has a 38% chance of winning, while Yokohama F. Marinos is slightly behind at 35%, with a 27% probability for a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Cerezo Osaka, with a 7% likelihood. Both teams are expected to score, with a 55% chance, and the model suggests a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Cerezo Osaka has recorded one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches, while Yokohama F. Marinos has performed slightly better with three wins, two draws, and one loss. The head-to-head record over the last ten encounters shows Cerezo Osaka with three wins, three draws, and Yokohama F. Marinos leading with four wins. Expected goals for Cerezo Osaka stand at 1.13, while Yokohama F. Marinos is projected at 1.55.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cerezo Osaka and Yokohama F. Marinos expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.68
Cerezo Osaka and Yokohama F. Marinos attack and defence ratings
Cerezo Osaka
Yokohama F. Marinos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerezo Osaka | 38.1% | 2.62 | -15.5% | 2.32 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.5% | 1.83 | β | β |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.4% | 1.36 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 73.5% | 1.36 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerezo Osaka | 38.1% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Yokohama F. Marinos | 35.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.5% |
| No | 45.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cerezo Osaka win | 10.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.6% | |
| Loss | 73.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 0-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-2 | 9.3% |
Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos stats
Cerezo Osaka and Yokohama F. Marinos recent form
| WDLDWL | |
| WWDWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cerezo Osaka and Yokohama F. Marinos season so far
Cerezo Osaka record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Yokohama F. Marinos record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | Yokohama F. Marinos | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League | 3-1 |
| 2025-05-11 | Cerezo Osaka | Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-24 | Yokohama F. Marinos | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League | 4-0 |
| 2024-04-27 | Cerezo Osaka | Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League | 2-2 |
| 2023-11-12 | Yokohama F. Marinos | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League | 2-0 |
| 2023-04-01 | Cerezo Osaka | Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League | 2-1 |
| 2022-07-10 | Cerezo Osaka | Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League | 2-2 |
| 2022-02-19 | Yokohama F. Marinos | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League | 2-2 |
| 2021-10-24 | Cerezo Osaka | Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League | 2-1 |
| 2021-04-06 | Yokohama F. Marinos | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.0%, draw 26.2%, away 31.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.22 | 3.70 | 3.07 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.45 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.70 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.27 | 3.65 | 3.05 |
| Marathonbet | 2.16 | 3.60 | 2.99 |
| Pinnacle | 2.32 | 3.67 | 2.98 |
| SBO | 2.24 | 3.17 | 2.71 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .