J1 League Β· Β·Matchday 9

Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos

Garuda Lions Prediction: Cerezo Osaka

2 – 1 Predicted score Β· 7% model probability

Yanmar Hanasaka Stadium, Osaka

Cerezo Osaka 38%
Draw 27%
Yokohama F. Marinos 35%

Confidence: Low  Β·  blended with market odds

Chance Cerezo Osaka wins
38%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
92%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
55%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
7% of simulated outcomes

Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCerezo OsakaDrawYokohama F. Marinos
Model26.5%27.7%45.8%
Market42.0%26.2%31.8%
Final38.1%26.6%35.3%
Edge-15.5%+1.5%+14.0%

Confidence: Low

Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded β€” the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.

Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos match preview

Cerezo Osaka faces Yokohama F. Marinos in a J1 League matchup where the probabilities indicate a competitive contest. Cerezo Osaka has a 38% chance of winning, while Yokohama F. Marinos is slightly behind at 35%, with a 27% probability for a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Cerezo Osaka, with a 7% likelihood. Both teams are expected to score, with a 55% chance, and the model suggests a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match.

In terms of recent form, Cerezo Osaka has recorded one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches, while Yokohama F. Marinos has performed slightly better with three wins, two draws, and one loss. The head-to-head record over the last ten encounters shows Cerezo Osaka with three wins, three draws, and Yokohama F. Marinos leading with four wins. Expected goals for Cerezo Osaka stand at 1.13, while Yokohama F. Marinos is projected at 1.55.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Cerezo Osaka ↓ / Yokohama F. Ma β†’ 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 9% 8% 1 13% 9% 2 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Cerezo Osaka and Yokohama F. Marinos expected goals

Cerezo Osaka 1.13
Yokohama F. Marinos 1.55

Total expected goals: 2.68

Cerezo Osaka and Yokohama F. Marinos attack and defence ratings

Cerezo Osaka

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Yokohama F. Marinos

Attack 1.20 +20%
Defence 0.70 -30%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

J1 League

Before and after this match

Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Cerezo Osaka 38.1% 2.62 -15.5% 2.32
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.2% 1.99 β€” β€”
Both teams to score Yes 54.5% 1.83 β€” β€”
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.4% 1.36 β€” β€”
Handicap -1 Loss 73.5% 1.36 β€” β€”

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Cerezo Osaka38.1%
Draw26.6%
Yokohama F. Marinos35.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.2%
Under 2.549.8%
Both teams to scoreYes54.5%
No45.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)64.7%
12 (either side)73.4%
X2 (draw or away)61.9%
Handicap -1Cerezo Osaka win10.9%
Push (exactly one goal)15.6%
Loss73.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.2%
0-19.4%
1-29.3%

Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos stats

Cerezo Osaka and Yokohama F. Marinos recent form

newest first

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Cerezo Osaka and Yokohama F. Marinos season so far

league record

Cerezo Osaka record

  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

Yokohama F. Marinos record

  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Cerezo Osaka wins 3Draws 4Yokohama F. Marinos wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-11-30Yokohama F. MarinosCerezo OsakaJ1 League3-1
2025-05-11Cerezo OsakaYokohama F. MarinosJ1 League1-0
2024-08-24Yokohama F. MarinosCerezo OsakaJ1 League4-0
2024-04-27Cerezo OsakaYokohama F. MarinosJ1 League2-2
2023-11-12Yokohama F. MarinosCerezo OsakaJ1 League2-0
2023-04-01Cerezo OsakaYokohama F. MarinosJ1 League2-1
2022-07-10Cerezo OsakaYokohama F. MarinosJ1 League2-2
2022-02-19Yokohama F. MarinosCerezo OsakaJ1 League2-2
2021-10-24Cerezo OsakaYokohama F. MarinosJ1 League2-1
2021-04-06Yokohama F. MarinosCerezo OsakaJ1 League1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.0%, draw 26.2%, away 31.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.22 3.70 3.07
Bet365 2.25 3.40 2.90
BetVictor 2.25 3.60 3.00
Betano 2.25 3.45 2.95
Betfair 2.20 3.70 2.88
Dafabet 2.27 3.65 3.05
Marathonbet 2.16 3.60 2.99
Pinnacle 2.32 3.67 2.98
SBO 2.24 3.17 2.71
William Hill 2.20 3.40 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.25 β–² +0.08
X 3.60 β€”
2 2.96 β–Ό -0.04

12 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Cerezo Osaka Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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