FC Tokyo
vs
Urawa
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Tokyo
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
FC Tokyo vs Urawa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Tokyo vs Urawa
| Probability | FC Tokyo | Draw | Urawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.9% | 19.8% | 15.3% |
| Market | 55.3% | 23.5% | 21.2% |
| Final | 57.7% | 22.6% | 19.7% |
| Edge | +9.6% | -3.8% | -5.9% |
Why FC Tokyo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 1.11.
- The market prices FC Tokyo below the model: +9.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
FC Tokyo vs Urawa match preview
FC Tokyo enters the match against Urawa with a strong recent form, boasting four wins and a draw in their last six matches. Their expected goals stand at 2.40, indicating a potent attacking threat. Urawa, while also performing well with five wins in their last six games, has a lower expected goals figure of 1.11. The probabilities suggest a 58% chance of a victory for FC Tokyo, with a likely scoreline of 2-1.
Historically, FC Tokyo has had the upper hand in their recent encounters, winning five of the last ten matchups against Urawa, who have secured two wins. The model predicts a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 62%, highlighting an expectation for an engaging contest.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Tokyo and Urawa expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.51
FC Tokyo and Urawa attack and defence ratings
FC Tokyo
Urawa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Kashima vs Gamba Osaka — team news & stats
- Kashiwa Reysol vs Vissel Kobe
- Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos — team news & stats
- Avispa Fukuoka v Fagiano Okayama — match page
- Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia — team news & stats
- JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki
- Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-pulse
- Tokyo Verdy v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — match page
Before and after this match
FC Tokyo vs Urawa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Tokyo | 57.7% | 1.73 | +9.6% | 1.72 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Tokyo win | 43.7% | 2.29 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Tokyo | 57.7% |
| Draw | 22.6% | |
| Urawa | 19.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.9% |
| No | 38.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Tokyo win | 43.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 35.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.6% |
| 1-1 | 8.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.6% |
FC Tokyo vs Urawa stats
FC Tokyo and Urawa recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Tokyo and Urawa season so far
FC Tokyo record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Urawa record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
FC Tokyo vs Urawa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Urawa | FC Tokyo | J1 League | 0-0 |
| 2026-02-14 | FC Tokyo | Urawa | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-27 | FC Tokyo | Urawa | Emperor Cup | 2-1 |
| 2025-07-19 | FC Tokyo | Urawa | J1 League | 3-2 |
| 2025-05-17 | Urawa | FC Tokyo | J1 League | 3-2 |
| 2024-09-21 | Urawa | FC Tokyo | J1 League | 0-2 |
| 2024-04-03 | FC Tokyo | Urawa | J1 League | 2-1 |
| 2023-07-08 | Urawa | FC Tokyo | J1 League | 0-0 |
| 2023-02-18 | FC Tokyo | Urawa | J1 League | 2-0 |
| 2022-07-10 | Urawa | FC Tokyo | J1 League | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Tokyo vs Urawa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.3%, draw 23.5%, away 21.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.71 | 4.20 | 4.44 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.65 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| Marathonbet | 1.67 | 4.10 | 4.33 |
| Pinnacle | 1.72 | 4.23 | 4.44 |
| SBO | 1.70 | 3.52 | 3.94 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .