Tokyo Verdy
vs
FC Tokyo
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Tokyo
0 – 2 Predicted score · 16% model probability
Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo
| Probability | Tokyo Verdy | Draw | FC Tokyo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 8.2% | 20.4% | 71.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 8.2% | 20.4% | 71.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why FC Tokyo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 0.56.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo match preview
Tokyo Verdy faces FC Tokyo in the J1 League with a significant disparity in form. Tokyo Verdy has recorded a series of draws and losses, with their most recent results being D-L-D-D-L-L. In contrast, FC Tokyo is on a strong run, having won their last five matches, followed by a draw. According to our model, Tokyo Verdy has an 8% chance of winning, while FC Tokyo stands at 71%.
The expected goals for this match suggest a dominant performance from FC Tokyo, with an expected goal tally of 2.03 compared to Tokyo Verdy's 0.56. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-2, occurring with a 16% probability. Additionally, there is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are predicted to score with a 38% likelihood.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tokyo Verdy and FC Tokyo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.59
Tokyo Verdy and FC Tokyo attack and defence ratings
Tokyo Verdy
FC Tokyo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Tokyo | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 91.8% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Tokyo win | 46.6% | 2.15 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tokyo Verdy | 8.2% |
| Draw | 20.4% | |
| FC Tokyo | 71.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.0% |
| No | 62.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 28.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 91.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Tokyo win | 46.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.8% | |
| Loss | 28.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 15.5% |
| 0-1 | 14.4% | |
| 0-3 | 10.5% |
Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo stats
Tokyo Verdy and FC Tokyo recent form
| Tokyo Verdy |
DLDDLL |
| FC Tokyo |
WWWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tokyo Verdy and FC Tokyo season so far
Tokyo Verdy record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
FC Tokyo record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | FC Tokyo | Tokyo Verdy | J1 League | 2-1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Tokyo Verdy | FC Tokyo | J1 League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.