J1 League
·
·Matchday 10
Kashiwa Reysol
vs
Nagoya Grampus
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kashiwa Reysol
3 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Kashiwa Reysol
81%
Draw
12%
Nagoya Grampus
7%
Chance Kashiwa Reysol wins
81%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
98%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
63%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
3 – 1
8% of simulated outcomes
Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus
| Probability | Kashiwa Reysol | Draw | Nagoya Grampus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 80.9% | 11.8% | 7.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 80.9% | 11.8% | 7.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Kashiwa Reysol
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.39 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
98%
2+ goals
94%
3+ goals
82%
No goals
2%
Kashiwa Reysol and Nagoya Grampus expected goals
Kashiwa Reysol
3.39
Nagoya Grampus
1.05
Total expected goals: 4.44
Kashiwa Reysol and Nagoya Grampus attack and defence ratings
Kashiwa Reysol
Attack
1.70 +70%
Defence
1.01 +1%
Nagoya Grampus
Attack
0.80 -20%
Defence
1.38 +38%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 80.9% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.9% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.7% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Kashiwa Reysol win | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 80.9% |
| Draw | 11.8% | |
| Nagoya Grampus | 7.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 18.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% |
| No | 36.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 88.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 19.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kashiwa Reysol win | 64.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.4% | |
| Loss | 19.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 8.1% |
| 3-0 | 7.7% | |
| 2-1 | 7.1% |
Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus stats
Kashiwa Reysol and Nagoya Grampus recent form
| Kashiwa Reysol |
WWWWLL |
| Nagoya Grampus |
LLLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kashiwa Reysol and Nagoya Grampus season so far
Kashiwa Reysol record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Nagoya Grampus record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.