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J1 League · Full time ·Matchday 10

Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus

1 – 3 Full time

6′Takuya Uchida
13′Tomoya WakaharaKengo Nagai
16′Yoshio Koizumi
23′Keita Endo
36′Yudai Kimura
45′Hinata YamauchiYusuke Segawa
45′Sachiro ToshimaWataru Harada
52′Daiki Sugioka
57′Kensuke NagaiHidemasa Koda
63′Yudai KimuraYuya Yamagishi
68′Keita EndoKenshin Yuba
68′Yudai KonishiRiki Harakawa
73′Shota FujioMao Hosoya
77′Tsukasa MorishimaMasahito Ono
77′Yuki NogamiTomoya Koyamatsu
77′Ryuji IzumiShuhei Tokumoto
79′Yuya Yamagishi
86′Tomoki TakamineYota Sato

Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium, Kashiwa CityReferee: Akihiko Ikeuchi

Kashiwa Reysol 62%
Draw 21%
Nagoya Grampus 18%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 4
59 Possession % 41
7 Corners 2
11 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 1
1 Saves 2
507 Accurate passes 327

Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityKashiwa ReysolDrawNagoya Grampus
Model77.4%13.4%9.2%
Market56.3%23.0%20.7%
Final61.5%20.6%17.8%
Edge+5.3%-2.4%-2.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Kashiwa Reysol

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.22 vs 1.13.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Kashiwa Reysol below our published probability: +5.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Kashiwa Reysol ↓ / Nagoya Grampus → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 2 8% 3 8% 4+ 13% 15% 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 94%
3+ goals 81%
No goals 2%

Kashiwa Reysol and Nagoya Grampus expected goals

Kashiwa Reysol 3.22
Nagoya Grampus 1.13

Total expected goals: 4.35

Kashiwa Reysol and Nagoya Grampus attack and defence ratings

Kashiwa Reysol

Attack 1.70 +70%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Nagoya Grampus

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 1.32 +32%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus: result vs prediction

Kashiwa Reysol 1 – 3 Nagoya Grampus

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

J1 League

Before and after this match

Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Kashiwa Reysol 61.5% 1.63 +5.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80.8% 1.24 — —
Both teams to score Yes 65.4% 1.53 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 82.2% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 Kashiwa Reysol win 59.8% 1.67 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Kashiwa Reysol61.5%
Draw20.6%
Nagoya Grampus17.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.580.8%
Under 2.519.2%
Both teams to scoreYes65.4%
No34.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)82.2%
12 (either side)79.4%
X2 (draw or away)38.5%
Handicap -1Kashiwa Reysol win59.8%
Push (exactly one goal)17.5%
Loss22.6%
Correct score (top 3)3-18.1%
2-17.6%
3-07.2%

Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus stats

Kashiwa Reysol and Nagoya Grampus recent form

newest first
Kashiwa Reysol WWWWLL
Nagoya Grampus WLLLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Kashiwa Reysol and Nagoya Grampus going into this match

league record before kick-off

Kashiwa Reysol record

  • They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Nagoya Grampus record

  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Kashiwa Reysol wins 2Draws 5Nagoya Grampus wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-11-08Kashiwa ReysolNagoya GrampusJ1 League1-0
2025-04-29Nagoya GrampusKashiwa ReysolJ1 League1-2
2024-07-14Nagoya GrampusKashiwa ReysolJ1 League2-1
2024-06-09Nagoya GrampusKashiwa ReysolJ-League Cup1-0
2024-06-05Kashiwa ReysolNagoya GrampusJ-League Cup1-1
2024-03-16Kashiwa ReysolNagoya GrampusJ1 League0-2
2023-12-03Nagoya GrampusKashiwa ReysolJ1 League1-1
2023-08-30Kashiwa ReysolNagoya GrampusEmperor Cup2-0
2023-03-12Kashiwa ReysolNagoya GrampusJ1 League0-3
2022-07-06Kashiwa ReysolNagoya GrampusJ1 League0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 56.9%, draw 22.7%, away 20.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.69 4.20 4.57
Bet365 1.60 4.00 4.75
BetVictor 1.70 4.10 4.60
Betano 1.60 4.15 4.80
Betfair 1.57 4.33 5.00
Dafabet 1.64 4.40 5.00
Marathonbet 1.65 4.10 4.45
Pinnacle 1.71 4.26 4.56
SBO 1.57 3.80 4.44
William Hill 1.67 3.90 4.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.68 ▲ +0.08
X 4.10 ▼ -0.15
2 4.56 ▼ -0.36

11 snapshots recorded, from .