Nagoya Grampus
vs
Cerezo Osaka
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nagoya Grampus
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka
| Probability | Nagoya Grampus | Draw | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.0% | 25.8% | 40.1% |
| Market | 38.1% | 26.7% | 35.2% |
| Final | 37.1% | 26.5% | 36.5% |
| Edge | -4.1% | -0.8% | +4.9% |
Why Nagoya Grampus
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.51, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka match preview
Nagoya Grampus faces Cerezo Osaka in a closely contested J1 League match, with probabilities showing Nagoya Grampus at 37%, a draw at 26%, and Cerezo Osaka at 36%. The expected goals for Nagoya Grampus stand at 1.49, while Cerezo Osaka is slightly ahead with 1.63. Our model suggests a most likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Nagoya Grampus, with a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% probability that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Nagoya Grampus has struggled, recording two wins and four losses in their last six matches. Cerezo Osaka's form is slightly better, with one win, three draws, and two losses in their recent outings. The head-to-head record favors Nagoya Grampus, who has won five of the last ten encounters, while Cerezo Osaka has secured four victories.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nagoya Grampus and Cerezo Osaka expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.12
Nagoya Grampus and Cerezo Osaka attack and defence ratings
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka
- FC Tokyo v Kashiwa Reysol — match page
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Vissel Kobe — team news & stats
- Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima
- Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats
- Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia
- V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — team news & stats
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy
Before and after this match
Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nagoya Grampus | 37.1% | 2.70 | -4.1% | 2.51 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.0% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nagoya Grampus | 37.1% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Cerezo Osaka | 36.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.4% |
| No | 36.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nagoya Grampus win | 16.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.5% | |
| Loss | 66.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-1 | 8.0% |
Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka stats
Nagoya Grampus and Cerezo Osaka recent form
| Nagoya Grampus |
WWLLLL |
| Cerezo Osaka |
LDWDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nagoya Grampus and Cerezo Osaka season so far
Nagoya Grampus record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cerezo Osaka record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Cerezo Osaka | Nagoya Grampus | J1 League | 6-1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Nagoya Grampus | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League | 3-0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Nagoya Grampus | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-08 | Cerezo Osaka | Nagoya Grampus | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2024-06-30 | Cerezo Osaka | Nagoya Grampus | J1 League | 2-1 |
| 2024-04-21 | Nagoya Grampus | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League | 2-1 |
| 2023-08-26 | Cerezo Osaka | Nagoya Grampus | J1 League | 3-1 |
| 2023-06-03 | Nagoya Grampus | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League | 3-1 |
| 2022-11-05 | Cerezo Osaka | Nagoya Grampus | J1 League | 0-1 |
| 2022-07-13 | Nagoya Grampus | Cerezo Osaka | Emperor Cup | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.1%, draw 26.7%, away 35.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.50 | 3.57 | 2.72 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.63 |
| Marathonbet | 2.44 | 3.48 | 2.65 |
| Pinnacle | 2.51 | 3.55 | 2.71 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .