Shimizu S-pulse
vs
Machida Zelvia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Machida Zelvia
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia
| Probability | Shimizu S-pulse | Draw | Machida Zelvia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.8% | 25.3% | 53.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 20.8% | 25.3% | 53.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Machida Zelvia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.05.
Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia match preview
Shimizu S-pulse will face Machida Zelvia in the J1 League on October 21, 2026. According to our model, Shimizu S-pulse has a 21% chance of winning, while Machida Zelvia is favored with a 54% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a 10% likelihood. Both teams have shown attacking potential, with expected goals of 1.05 for Shimizu S-pulse and 1.80 for Machida Zelvia. Additionally, there is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% probability that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Shimizu S-pulse has recorded one draw, four wins, and one loss in their last six matches. Conversely, Machida Zelvia has achieved three wins, one draw, and two losses in the same timeframe. The head-to-head record shows Shimizu S-pulse with three wins, one draw, and two wins for Machida Zelvia in their last six encounters. The overall confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Shimizu S-pulse and Machida Zelvia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.85
Shimizu S-pulse and Machida Zelvia attack and defence ratings
Shimizu S-pulse
Machida Zelvia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka
- FC Tokyo v Kashiwa Reysol — match page
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Vissel Kobe — team news & stats
- Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima
- Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka — match page
- Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats
- V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — team news & stats
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy
Before and after this match
Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Machida Zelvia | 53.9% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.1% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shimizu S-pulse | 20.8% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Machida Zelvia | 53.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% |
| No | 44.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 46.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Machida Zelvia win | 31.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 46.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 0-2 | 9.4% |
Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia stats
Shimizu S-pulse and Machida Zelvia recent form
| Shimizu S-pulse |
DWWWWL |
| Machida Zelvia |
WWWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Shimizu S-pulse and Machida Zelvia season so far
Shimizu S-pulse record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Machida Zelvia record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-05 | Machida Zelvia | Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League | 3-0 |
| 2025-05-11 | Shimizu S-pulse | Machida Zelvia | J1 League | 2-2 |
| 2023-08-19 | Shimizu S-pulse | Machida Zelvia | J2 League | 3-2 |
| 2023-05-21 | Machida Zelvia | Shimizu S-pulse | J2 League | 2-1 |
| 2016-10-08 | Shimizu S-pulse | Machida Zelvia | J2 League | 2-0 |
| 2016-06-08 | Machida Zelvia | Shimizu S-pulse | J2 League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.