Yokohama F. Marinos
vs
Tokyo Verdy
Garuda Lions Prediction: Yokohama F. Marinos
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy
| Probability | Yokohama F. Marinos | Draw | Tokyo Verdy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.3% | 21.7% | 7.1% |
| Market | 51.2% | 27.2% | 21.6% |
| Final | 56.2% | 25.8% | 18.0% |
| Edge | +20.1% | -5.6% | -14.5% |
Why Yokohama F. Marinos
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 0.44.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Yokohama F. Marinos below the model: +20.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy match preview
Yokohama F. Marinos are favored in their upcoming match against Tokyo Verdy, with a 66% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0, occurring at a rate of 17%. Yokohama's expected goals stand at 1.74, while Tokyo Verdy's are significantly lower at 0.52, reflecting their recent struggles, including a sequence of six matches with only one draw.
In terms of recent form, Yokohama F. Marinos have recorded a mix of draws and wins, with their latest results being D-W-W-D-W-D. Conversely, Tokyo Verdy's form has been less favorable, marked by three draws and three losses in their last six matches. Historically, Yokohama F. Marinos have dominated their recent encounters, winning both of the last two head-to-head matches against Tokyo Verdy.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Yokohama F. Marinos and Tokyo Verdy expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.30
Yokohama F. Marinos and Tokyo Verdy attack and defence ratings
Yokohama F. Marinos
Tokyo Verdy
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka
- FC Tokyo v Kashiwa Reysol — match page
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Vissel Kobe — team news & stats
- Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima
- Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka — match page
- Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats
- Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia
- V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 56.2% | 1.78 | +20.1% | 1.87 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.0% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Yokohama F. Marinos win | 44.7% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 56.2% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Tokyo Verdy | 18.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30.9% |
| No | 69.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Yokohama F. Marinos win | 44.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.6% | |
| Loss | 28.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 17.8% |
| 2-0 | 17.4% | |
| 0-0 | 10.8% |
Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy stats
Yokohama F. Marinos and Tokyo Verdy recent form
| Yokohama F. Marinos |
DDWWDW |
| Tokyo Verdy |
LLDLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Yokohama F. Marinos and Tokyo Verdy season so far
Yokohama F. Marinos record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tokyo Verdy record
- They have won 0 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Tokyo Verdy | Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League | 0-6 |
| 2026-02-28 | Yokohama F. Marinos | Tokyo Verdy | J1 League | 3-2 |
| 2025-08-09 | Tokyo Verdy | Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-05 | Yokohama F. Marinos | Tokyo Verdy | J1 League | 0-0 |
| 2024-06-29 | Yokohama F. Marinos | Tokyo Verdy | J1 League | 1-2 |
| 2024-02-25 | Tokyo Verdy | Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League | 1-2 |
| 2016-09-22 | Yokohama F. Marinos | Tokyo Verdy | Emperor Cup | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.2%, draw 27.2%, away 21.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.87 | 3.53 | 4.36 |
| BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.40 | 4.33 |
| Marathonbet | 1.82 | 3.44 | 4.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.87 | 3.46 | 4.38 |
| William Hill | 1.83 | 3.30 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .