Tokyo Verdy
vs
Avispa Fukuoka
Garuda Lions Prediction: Avispa Fukuoka
0 – 1 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka
| Probability | Tokyo Verdy | Draw | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.5% | 32.0% | 43.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 24.5% | 32.0% | 43.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Avispa Fukuoka
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.23 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka match preview
Tokyo Verdy faces Avispa Fukuoka in a J1 League match with Tokyo Verdy having a 20% chance of winning, while Avispa Fukuoka is favored at 49%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring with a 15% probability. Both teams have struggled recently, with Tokyo Verdy's form showing two losses, two draws, and one win in their last five matches, while Avispa Fukuoka has one win and four losses in the same period.
In terms of expected goals, Tokyo Verdy is projected to score 0.76, whereas Avispa Fukuoka is expected to net 1.34. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 35%, and both teams scoring is predicted at 40%. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the forecast.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tokyo Verdy and Avispa Fukuoka expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.08
Tokyo Verdy and Avispa Fukuoka attack and defence ratings
Tokyo Verdy
Avispa Fukuoka
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Shimizu S-pulse — match page
- Kashima v Kashiwa Reysol — match page
- Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia — match page
- Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga
- Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos
- Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Chiba — match page
- Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki — team news & stats
- FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avispa Fukuoka | 43.5% | 2.30 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tokyo Verdy | 24.5% |
| Draw | 32.0% | |
| Avispa Fukuoka | 43.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.9% |
| No | 58.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Avispa Fukuoka win | 20.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 56.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-1 | 14.0% | |
| 0-0 | 13.8% |
Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka stats
Tokyo Verdy and Avispa Fukuoka recent form
| Tokyo Verdy |
LLDLDD |
| Avispa Fukuoka |
LWLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tokyo Verdy and Avispa Fukuoka season so far
Tokyo Verdy record
- They have won 0 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
Avispa Fukuoka record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.