Kashima
vs
Kashiwa Reysol
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kashima
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol
| Probability | Kashima | Draw | Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.1% | 21.2% | 35.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 43.1% | 21.2% | 35.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol match preview
Kashima faces Kashiwa Reysol in an upcoming J1 League match, with our model assigning a 36% probability of a Kashima victory, a 22% chance of a draw, and a 42% likelihood of a Kashiwa Reysol win. The expected goals for Kashima stand at 1.99, while Kashiwa Reysol is projected to score 2.14. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with a 7% probability.
Both teams have shown strong recent form, with Kashima recording three wins and a draw in their last six matches, while Kashiwa Reysol has achieved four wins in the same period. The model indicates a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams scoring at 77%, suggesting an engaging encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kashima and Kashiwa Reysol expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.27
Kashima and Kashiwa Reysol attack and defence ratings
Kashima
Kashiwa Reysol
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Shimizu S-pulse — match page
- Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka
- Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia — match page
- Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga
- Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos
- Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Chiba — match page
- Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki — team news & stats
- FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kashima | 43.1% | 2.32 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.9% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.3% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kashima | 43.1% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 35.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 20.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.3% |
| No | 21.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kashima win | 25.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.6% | |
| Loss | 56.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-2 | 7.2% |
| 2-1 | 7.1% | |
| 1-1 | 7.0% |
Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol stats
Kashima and Kashiwa Reysol recent form
| Kashima |
WWWDLL |
| Kashiwa Reysol |
LWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kashima and Kashiwa Reysol season so far
Kashima record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Kashiwa Reysol record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Kashiwa Reysol | Kashima | J1 League | 0-1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Kashima | Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.