Kashima
vs
Cerezo Osaka
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kashima
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.35.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Kashima is the favourite, not a value bet.
Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka
| Probability | Kashima | Draw | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.4% | 22.2% | 22.5% |
| Market | 54.8% | 23.4% | 21.7% |
| Final | 55.0% | 23.1% | 21.9% |
| Edge | +0.1% | -0.3% | +0.2% |
Why Kashima
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.35.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.8% per unit staked (our 55.0% × 1.75 − 1).
Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka match preview
Kashima enters this matchup against Cerezo Osaka with a probability of winning at 55%, while Cerezo Osaka has a 22% chance of securing a victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Kashima, with an expected goals tally of 2.10 for Kashima and 1.30 for Cerezo Osaka. Additionally, there is a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and a 65% chance that both teams will find the back of the net.
In terms of recent form, Kashima has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. Conversely, Cerezo Osaka has struggled, managing only one win and experiencing three draws and one loss in the same timeframe. This context adds an intriguing dynamic to the upcoming fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kashima and Cerezo Osaka expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.52
Kashima and Cerezo Osaka attack and defence ratings
Kashima
Cerezo Osaka
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse — team news & stats
- Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — match page
- Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo — team news & stats
- Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus
- Kashiwa Reysol v Urawa — match page
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kawasaki Frontale — team news & stats
- JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka — team news & stats
- V-varen Nagasaki v Tokyo Verdy — match page
Before and after this match
Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kashima | 55.0% | 1.82 | +0.1% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.6% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kashima | 55.0% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| Cerezo Osaka | 21.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.5% |
| No | 33.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kashima win | 34.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 44.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 7.0% |
Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka stats
Kashima and Cerezo Osaka recent form
| Kashima |
LDWWWD |
| Cerezo Osaka |
DDLDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kashima and Cerezo Osaka season so far
Kashima record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Cerezo Osaka record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.8%, draw 23.4%, away 21.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.73 | 4.15 | 4.36 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.95 | 4.25 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| Dafabet | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.69 | 4.05 | 4.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.72 | 4.07 | 4.40 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.20 |