Mito Hollyhock
vs
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0 – 2 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.93 vs 0.62.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
| Probability | Mito Hollyhock | Draw | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 4.6% | 12.0% | 83.4% |
| Market | 14.6% | 20.3% | 65.0% |
| Final | 12.1% | 18.2% | 69.6% |
| Edge | -2.5% | -2.1% | +4.6% |
Why Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.93 vs 0.62.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sanfrecce Hiroshima below our published probability: +4.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.3% per unit staked (our 69.6% × 1.47 − 1).
Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima match preview
Mito Hollyhock faces a challenging matchup against Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the J1 League. The model gives Mito Hollyhock an 8% chance of winning, while Sanfrecce Hiroshima stands at 74%. The expected goals for Mito Hollyhock is 0.67, contrasting sharply with Sanfrecce Hiroshima's 2.34. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-2, with a 14% probability.
Recent form highlights the disparity between the two teams, as Mito Hollyhock has recorded five consecutive losses followed by a draw, while Sanfrecce Hiroshima has won five out of their last six matches. The model suggests a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance for both teams to score, indicating a potentially high-scoring game favoring the visitors.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mito Hollyhock and Sanfrecce Hiroshima expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.54
Mito Hollyhock and Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack and defence ratings
Mito Hollyhock
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
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- Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka
- Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus
- Kashiwa Reysol v Urawa — match page
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kawasaki Frontale — team news & stats
- JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka — team news & stats
- V-varen Nagasaki v Tokyo Verdy — match page
Before and after this match
Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 69.6% | 1.44 | +4.6% | 1.47 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.7% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.9% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima win | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mito Hollyhock | 12.1% |
| Draw | 18.2% | |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 69.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.0% |
| No | 56.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 30.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima win | 65.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.3% | |
| Loss | 16.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 12.4% |
| 0-3 | 12.1% | |
| 0-4 | 8.8% |
Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima stats
Mito Hollyhock and Sanfrecce Hiroshima recent form
| Mito Hollyhock |
LLLLLL |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
WLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mito Hollyhock and Sanfrecce Hiroshima season so far
Mito Hollyhock record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima record
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 14.6%, draw 20.3%, away 65.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.57 | 4.67 | 1.47 |
| BetVictor | 6.50 | 4.40 | 1.44 |
| Betano | 6.10 | 4.50 | 1.47 |
| Betfair | 6.50 | 4.75 | 1.40 |
| Dafabet | 6.40 | 4.80 | 1.46 |
| Marathonbet | 6.40 | 4.55 | 1.43 |
| Pinnacle | 6.28 | 4.87 | 1.44 |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 4.40 | 1.44 |