Vissel Kobe
vs
Nagoya Grampus
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vissel Kobe
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.90.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Vissel Kobe is the favourite, not a value bet.
Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus
| Probability | Vissel Kobe | Draw | Nagoya Grampus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.8% | 27.4% | 19.8% |
| Market | 51.2% | 24.9% | 23.8% |
| Final | 51.6% | 25.5% | 22.8% |
| Edge | +0.4% | +0.6% | -1.0% |
Why Vissel Kobe
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.4% per unit staked (our 51.6% × 1.87 − 1).
Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus match preview
Vissel Kobe enters this match with a 55% probability of winning against Nagoya Grampus, who have a 19% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with an 11% likelihood. Vissel Kobe's expected goals stand at 1.71, while Nagoya Grampus is projected to score 0.93. Recent form shows Vissel Kobe with two wins in their last five matches, while Nagoya Grampus has struggled, recording just one win in their last six.
In terms of goal-scoring potential, there is a 51% probability that both teams will score, and a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals being achieved. The head-to-head record favors Vissel Kobe, who have won both of their last encounters against Nagoya Grampus. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vissel Kobe and Nagoya Grampus expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.50
Vissel Kobe and Nagoya Grampus attack and defence ratings
Vissel Kobe
Nagoya Grampus
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse — team news & stats
- Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — match page
- Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo — team news & stats
- Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka
- Kashiwa Reysol v Urawa — match page
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kawasaki Frontale — team news & stats
- JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka — team news & stats
- V-varen Nagasaki v Tokyo Verdy — match page
Before and after this match
Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vissel Kobe | 51.6% | 1.94 | +0.4% | 1.87 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.2% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.2% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vissel Kobe | 51.6% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| Nagoya Grampus | 22.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.4% |
| No | 51.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vissel Kobe win | 28.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 47.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 1-0 | 12.0% | |
| 2-0 | 10.6% |
Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus stats
Vissel Kobe and Nagoya Grampus recent form
| Vissel Kobe |
DLWLWW |
| Nagoya Grampus |
DDWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vissel Kobe and Nagoya Grampus season so far
Vissel Kobe record
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Nagoya Grampus record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Vissel Kobe | Nagoya Grampus | J1 League | 3-2 |
| 2026-03-14 | Nagoya Grampus | Vissel Kobe | J1 League | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vissel Kobe vs Nagoya Grampus odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.2%, draw 24.9%, away 23.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.87 | 3.86 | 3.94 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.85 | 3.65 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.84 | 3.85 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.82 | 3.76 | 3.84 |
| Pinnacle | 1.85 | 3.79 | 4.06 |
| William Hill | 1.83 | 3.50 | 3.80 |