Nagoya Grampus
vs
Yokohama F. Marinos
Garuda Lions Prediction: Yokohama F. Marinos
0 – 1 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos
| Probability | Nagoya Grampus | Draw | Yokohama F. Marinos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.5% | 26.1% | 57.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 16.5% | 26.1% | 57.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Yokohama F. Marinos
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos match preview
Nagoya Grampus faces Yokohama F. Marinos in the J1 League with a model probability of 16% for a home win, 26% for a draw, and 58% for an away victory. The expected goals for Nagoya Grampus is 0.81, while Yokohama F. Marinos has a higher expected goal tally of 1.70. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 13%.
In terms of recent form, Nagoya Grampus has struggled, recording two wins and four losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Yokohama F. Marinos has shown more resilience, with two wins and four draws in the same timeframe. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score stand at 46%, indicating a potentially tight match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nagoya Grampus and Yokohama F. Marinos expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.51
Nagoya Grampus and Yokohama F. Marinos attack and defence ratings
Nagoya Grampus
Yokohama F. Marinos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Kashima v Kashiwa Reysol — match page
- Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka
- Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia — match page
- Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga
- Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Chiba — match page
- Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki — team news & stats
- FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.2% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.5% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.6% | 2.35 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nagoya Grampus | 16.5% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Yokohama F. Marinos | 57.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.4% |
| No | 53.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 42.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Yokohama F. Marinos win | 32.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 42.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-1 | 12.3% | |
| 0-2 | 11.8% |
Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos stats
Nagoya Grampus and Yokohama F. Marinos recent form
| Nagoya Grampus |
WWLLLL |
| Yokohama F. Marinos |
DDWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nagoya Grampus and Yokohama F. Marinos season so far
Nagoya Grampus record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Yokohama F. Marinos record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.