Urawa
vs
V-varen Nagasaki
Garuda Lions Prediction: Urawa
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki
| Probability | Urawa | Draw | V-varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.9% | 24.7% | 25.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 49.9% | 24.7% | 25.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Urawa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki match preview
Urawa enters this match with a 50% probability of winning, while V-varen Nagasaki has a 26% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Urawa, occurring with a 10% likelihood. The expectation for over 2.5 goals is at 61%, and both teams scoring is projected at 62%.
In terms of expected goals, Urawa is forecasted to score 1.86, compared to V-varen Nagasaki's 1.29. Urawa's recent form shows a mix of results with three wins in their last six matches, while V-varen Nagasaki has struggled, recording only one win in their last six outings. The overall confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Urawa and V-varen Nagasaki expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.15
Urawa and V-varen Nagasaki attack and defence ratings
Urawa
V-varen Nagasaki
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Kashima v Kashiwa Reysol — match page
- Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka
- Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia — match page
- Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga
- Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos
- Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Chiba — match page
- FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Fagiano Okayama — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Urawa | 49.9% | 2.01 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.3% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.1% | 1.99 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Urawa | 49.9% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| V-varen Nagasaki | 25.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.3% |
| No | 37.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Urawa win | 28.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 50.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.4% |
Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki stats
Urawa and V-varen Nagasaki recent form
| Urawa |
WLWWLW |
| V-varen Nagasaki |
LDLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Urawa and V-varen Nagasaki season so far
Urawa record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
V-varen Nagasaki record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.