V-varen Nagasaki
vs
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0 – 2 Predicted score · 13% model probability
V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima overview
Garuda Lions analysis: V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
| Probability | V-varen Nagasaki | Draw | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 6.6% | 15.3% | 78.2% |
| Market | 15.8% | 19.5% | 64.7% |
| Final | 13.5% | 18.5% | 68.1% |
| Edge | -9.2% | -4.3% | +13.5% |
Why Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sanfrecce Hiroshima below the model: +13.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima match preview
V-varen Nagasaki faces a challenging matchup against Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the J1 League. According to our model, V-varen Nagasaki has a 9% chance of winning, while Sanfrecce Hiroshima holds a significant 74% probability of victory. The expected goals for V-varen Nagasaki stand at 0.79, contrasting sharply with Sanfrecce Hiroshima's 2.52. Recent form shows V-varen Nagasaki with a record of D-L-D-W-L-D, while Sanfrecce Hiroshima has been in strong form with W-W-W-W-L-W.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-2, occurring with a 12% probability. Additionally, there is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals, and both teams are expected to score with a 51% likelihood. In their last two encounters, V-varen Nagasaki has not secured a win against Sanfrecce Hiroshima, who has won both matches.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
V-varen Nagasaki and Sanfrecce Hiroshima expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.25
V-varen Nagasaki and Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack and defence ratings
V-varen Nagasaki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka
- FC Tokyo v Kashiwa Reysol — match page
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Vissel Kobe — team news & stats
- Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima
- Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka — match page
- Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats
- Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy
Before and after this match
V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 68.1% | 1.47 | +13.5% | 1.47 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 86.5% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima win | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | V-varen Nagasaki | 13.5% |
| Draw | 18.5% | |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 68.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.3% |
| No | 54.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 31.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 86.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima win | 57.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 21.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 13.0% |
| 0-3 | 11.2% | |
| 0-1 | 9.4% |
V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima stats
V-varen Nagasaki and Sanfrecce Hiroshima recent form
| V-varen Nagasaki |
LDLDWL |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
WWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
V-varen Nagasaki and Sanfrecce Hiroshima season so far
V-varen Nagasaki record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | V-varen Nagasaki | J1 League | 2-0 |
| 2026-02-06 | V-varen Nagasaki | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League | 1-3 |
| 2018-08-11 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | V-varen Nagasaki | J1 League | 2-0 |
| 2018-04-28 | V-varen Nagasaki | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 15.8%, draw 19.5%, away 64.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.11 | 4.93 | 1.47 |
| BetVictor | 6.00 | 4.60 | 1.45 |
| Marathonbet | 5.95 | 4.80 | 1.43 |
| Pinnacle | 5.88 | 4.93 | 1.46 |
| William Hill | 5.50 | 4.50 | 1.44 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .