Avispa Fukuoka
vs
Gamba Osaka
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gamba Osaka
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka
| Probability | Avispa Fukuoka | Draw | Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.4% | 28.5% | 45.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 26.4% | 28.5% | 45.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Gamba Osaka
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.08.
Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka match preview
In the upcoming J1 League match, Avispa Fukuoka faces Gamba Osaka with a kickoff scheduled for October 21, 2026. According to our model, Gamba Osaka holds a slight edge with a 37% probability of winning, compared to Avispa Fukuoka's 33% and a 31% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a 10% probability, while the expected goals are 1.13 for Avispa Fukuoka and 1.22 for Gamba Osaka.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Avispa Fukuoka recording one win and five losses in their last six matches, while Gamba Osaka has one win and four losses, along with one draw. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 42%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 49%. In their last two encounters, Avispa Fukuoka has one win and one draw against Gamba Osaka, who has yet to secure a victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Avispa Fukuoka and Gamba Osaka expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.55
Avispa Fukuoka and Gamba Osaka attack and defence ratings
Avispa Fukuoka
Gamba Osaka
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- FC Tokyo v Kashiwa Reysol — match page
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Vissel Kobe — team news & stats
- Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima
- Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka — match page
- Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats
- Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia
- V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — team news & stats
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy
Before and after this match
Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gamba Osaka | 45.2% | 2.21 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.8% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avispa Fukuoka | 26.4% |
| Draw | 28.5% | |
| Gamba Osaka | 45.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.1% |
| No | 47.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gamba Osaka win | 23.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 54.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 0-1 | 10.2% | |
| 1-2 | 9.1% |
Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka stats
Avispa Fukuoka and Gamba Osaka recent form
| Avispa Fukuoka |
LWLLLD |
| Gamba Osaka |
DLWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Avispa Fukuoka and Gamba Osaka season so far
Avispa Fukuoka record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Gamba Osaka record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Gamba Osaka | Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League | 1-2 |
| 2026-03-21 | Avispa Fukuoka | Gamba Osaka | J1 League | 2-2 |
| 2025-11-30 | Avispa Fukuoka | Gamba Osaka | J1 League | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-22 | Gamba Osaka | Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League | 2-1 |
| 2024-08-24 | Gamba Osaka | Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League | 2-2 |
| 2024-05-03 | Avispa Fukuoka | Gamba Osaka | J1 League | 1-0 |
| 2023-11-11 | Gamba Osaka | Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League | 1-2 |
| 2023-06-03 | Avispa Fukuoka | Gamba Osaka | J1 League | 1-2 |
| 2022-08-31 | Avispa Fukuoka | Gamba Osaka | J1 League | 0-1 |
| 2022-03-19 | Gamba Osaka | Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.