J1 League
·
Full time
·Matchday 10
Machida Zelvia
vs
Avispa Fukuoka
3 – 0 Full time
| 22′ | Tete Yengi | ||
| 45′ | Werik PopoYuji Kitajima | ||
| 54′ | Daihachi Okamura | ||
| 60′ | Gen Shoji | ||
| 65′ | Tete YengiTakuma Nishimura | ||
| 68′ | Keiya ShiihashiKokoro Maeda | ||
| 68′ | Masato YuzawaYu Hashimoto | ||
| 73′ | Hiroyuki Mae | ||
| 76′ | Henry Heroki Mochizuki | ||
| 77′ | Koki OgawaMitchell Duke | ||
| 77′ | Neta LaviRyohei Shirasaki | ||
| 79′ | Masato ShigemiShohei Takemoto | ||
| 86′ | Shu MorookaAbdul Hanan Sani Brown | ||
| 86′ | Yuki SomaKeiya Sento | ||
| 86′ | Daihachi OkamuraIbrahim Drešević |
Machida Zelvia
53%
Draw
26%
Avispa Fukuoka
20%
Match stats
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 1 | Saves | 4 |
| 394 | Accurate passes | 330 |
Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka
| Probability | Machida Zelvia | Draw | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.5% | 24.4% | 16.1% |
| Market | 51.1% | 27.1% | 21.8% |
| Final | 53.2% | 26.4% | 20.4% |
| Edge | +8.4% | -2.7% | -5.7% |
Why Machida Zelvia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 0.87.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Machida Zelvia below the model: +8.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
92%
2+ goals
76%
3+ goals
51%
No goals
8%
Machida Zelvia and Avispa Fukuoka expected goals
Machida Zelvia
1.84
Avispa Fukuoka
0.87
Total expected goals: 2.71
Machida Zelvia and Avispa Fukuoka attack and defence ratings
Machida Zelvia
Attack
1.39 +39%
Defence
0.84 -16%
Avispa Fukuoka
Attack
0.79 -21%
Defence
0.93 -7%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka: result vs prediction
Machida Zelvia 3 – 0 Avispa Fukuoka
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Shimizu S-pulse v Gamba Osaka — match page
- JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga
- Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo — team news & stats
- Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale — team news & stats
- Kashima v V-varen Nagasaki — match page
- Mito Hollyhock v Urawa — match page
- Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Machida Zelvia | 53.2% | 1.88 | +8.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.7% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Machida Zelvia | 53.2% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Avispa Fukuoka | 20.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.9% |
| No | 50.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Machida Zelvia win | 35.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 40.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-0 | 11.3% | |
| 1-0 | 11.2% |
Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka stats
Machida Zelvia and Avispa Fukuoka recent form
| Machida Zelvia |
WWLDWW |
| Avispa Fukuoka |
WLLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Machida Zelvia and Avispa Fukuoka going into this match
Machida Zelvia record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Avispa Fukuoka record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Machida Zelvia wins
5Draws
2Avispa Fukuoka wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-18 | Machida Zelvia | Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-29 | Avispa Fukuoka | Machida Zelvia | J1 League | 2-2 |
| 2024-09-14 | Avispa Fukuoka | Machida Zelvia | J1 League | 0-3 |
| 2024-06-22 | Machida Zelvia | Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League | 0-0 |
| 2020-10-21 | Machida Zelvia | Avispa Fukuoka | J2 League | 0-0 |
| 2020-09-13 | Avispa Fukuoka | Machida Zelvia | J2 League | 2-1 |
| 2019-07-14 | Machida Zelvia | Avispa Fukuoka | J2 League | 0-2 |
| 2019-04-13 | Avispa Fukuoka | Machida Zelvia | J2 League | 0-2 |
| 2018-11-04 | Machida Zelvia | Avispa Fukuoka | J2 League | 2-1 |
| 2018-06-30 | Avispa Fukuoka | Machida Zelvia | J2 League | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.0%, draw 27.1%, away 21.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.88 | 3.54 | 4.30 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.85 | 3.35 | 4.25 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.33 |
| Dafabet | 1.90 | 3.55 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.83 | 3.45 | 4.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.87 | 3.55 | 4.46 |
| SBO | 1.84 | 3.13 | 3.76 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.84 ▲ +0.04
X
3.48 ▼ -0.06
2
4.31 ▼ -0.02
12 snapshots recorded, from .