J1 League
·
Full time
·Matchday 10
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
vs
Kyoto Sanga
3 – 0 Full time
| 31′ | Kyo Sato | ||
| 48′ | Daiki Suga | ||
| 55′ | Ryuma NakanoAlex Souza | ||
| 55′ | Takaaki ShichiTemma Matsuda | ||
| 63′ | Shun AyukawaMutsuki Kato | ||
| 63′ | Yotaro NakajimaTaishi Matsumoto | ||
| 64′ | Daiki SugaKim Ju-sung | ||
| 67′ | Sébastien Haller | ||
| 72′ | Takumi KatoMarco Túlio | ||
| 72′ | Sung-jun YoonJoão Pedro | ||
| 73′ | Sébastien HallerTakuma Asano | ||
| 78′ | Akito Suzuki | ||
| 80′ | Hiroto MorookaTakuji Yonemoto | ||
| 82′ | Mutsuki Kato | ||
| 86′ | Akito SuzukiTakumu Kawamura |
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
72%
Draw
17%
Kyoto Sanga
11%
Match stats
| 24 | Shots | 7 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 63 | Possession % | 37 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 2 | Saves | 4 |
| 412 | Accurate passes | 220 |
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga
| Probability | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Draw | Kyoto Sanga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 79.4% | 14.5% | 6.1% |
| Market | 69.2% | 18.2% | 12.6% |
| Final | 71.7% | 17.3% | 11.0% |
| Edge | +2.5% | -0.9% | -1.6% |
Why Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.66 vs 0.65.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sanfrecce Hiroshima below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
85%
3+ goals
64%
No goals
4%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Kyoto Sanga expected goals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2.66
Kyoto Sanga
0.65
Total expected goals: 3.30
Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Kyoto Sanga attack and defence ratings
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Attack
1.74 +74%
Defence
0.58 -42%
Kyoto Sanga
Attack
0.86 -14%
Defence
1.06 +6%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga: result vs prediction
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3 – 0 Kyoto Sanga
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Shimizu S-pulse v Gamba Osaka — match page
- JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos
- Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo — team news & stats
- Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale — team news & stats
- Kashima v V-varen Nagasaki — match page
- Mito Hollyhock v Urawa — match page
- Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus — team news & stats
- Fagiano Okayama vs Vissel Kobe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 71.7% | 1.39 | +2.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.0% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima win | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 71.7% |
| Draw | 17.3% | |
| Kyoto Sanga | 11.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.0% |
| No | 55.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 28.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima win | 59.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 20.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.0% |
| 3-0 | 11.5% | |
| 1-0 | 9.1% |
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga stats
Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Kyoto Sanga recent form
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
WWWWLW |
| Kyoto Sanga |
LWWLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Kyoto Sanga going into this match
Sanfrecce Hiroshima record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
Kyoto Sanga record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins
2Draws
4Kyoto Sanga wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Kyoto Sanga | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League | 0-4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Kyoto Sanga | J1 League | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-12 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Kyoto Sanga | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-29 | Kyoto Sanga | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-03 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Kyoto Sanga | J1 League | 0-1 |
| 2024-05-19 | Kyoto Sanga | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League | 0-5 |
| 2023-09-23 | Kyoto Sanga | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League | 1-0 |
| 2023-06-04 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Kyoto Sanga | J1 League | 3-1 |
| 2022-10-05 | Kyoto Sanga | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Emperor Cup | 1-2 |
| 2022-07-17 | Kyoto Sanga | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 68.9%, draw 18.6%, away 12.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.38 | 5.25 | 7.41 |
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 4.50 | 7.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
| Betano | 1.38 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.36 | 5.60 | 7.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.35 | 5.10 | 7.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.36 | 5.50 | 7.80 |
| SBO | 1.33 | 4.70 | 6.38 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 4.80 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.36 ▲ +0.02
X
5.17 ▼ -0.12
2
7.46 ▼ -0.04
10 snapshots recorded, from .