Sanfrecce Hiroshima
vs
Kyoto Sanga
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga
| Probability | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Draw | Kyoto Sanga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 79.3% | 14.1% | 6.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 79.3% | 14.1% | 6.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.79 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga match preview
Sanfrecce Hiroshima is favored to win against Kyoto Sanga with a probability of 79%, while a draw stands at 14% and a Kyoto Sanga victory at 7%. The expected goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima are 2.79, significantly higher than Kyoto Sanga's 0.74. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0, occurring at an 11% probability. Additionally, there is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
Recent form shows Sanfrecce Hiroshima with three wins, one loss, and one draw in their last five matches, while Kyoto Sanga has two wins, two losses, and one draw. In their last two head-to-head encounters, each team has secured one win. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Kyoto Sanga expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.53
Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Kyoto Sanga attack and defence ratings
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kyoto Sanga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.4% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima win | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 79.3% |
| Draw | 14.1% | |
| Kyoto Sanga | 6.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.5% |
| No | 50.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 20.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima win | 59.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 20.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.4% |
| 3-0 | 10.6% | |
| 2-1 | 8.4% |
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga stats
Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Kyoto Sanga recent form
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
WWWLWD |
| Kyoto Sanga |
WWLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Kyoto Sanga season so far
Sanfrecce Hiroshima record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Kyoto Sanga record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Kyoto Sanga | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League | 0-4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Kyoto Sanga | J1 League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.