Kashima
vs
V-varen Nagasaki
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kashima
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki
| Probability | Kashima | Draw | V-varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.4% | 20.8% | 19.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 59.4% | 20.8% | 19.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Kashima
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 1.32.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki match preview
Kashima enters this match with a 59% probability of winning, while V-varen Nagasaki has a 20% chance, and a draw stands at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Kashima, with a 9% likelihood. There is a strong expectation for goals, with over 2.5 goals projected at 71% and both teams to score at 67%. Expected goals for Kashima are 2.34, compared to V-varen Nagasaki's 1.32.
In terms of recent form, Kashima has recorded two wins, one draw, and three losses, while V-varen Nagasaki has one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches. The head-to-head record shows Kashima with one win against V-varen Nagasaki, who has yet to secure a victory in their encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kashima and V-varen Nagasaki expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.65
Kashima and V-varen Nagasaki attack and defence ratings
Kashima
V-varen Nagasaki
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kashima | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.9% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.2% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.6% | 2.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kashima | 59.4% |
| Draw | 20.8% | |
| V-varen Nagasaki | 19.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.9% |
| No | 33.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kashima win | 38.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 40.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.3% |
| 1-1 | 8.8% | |
| 3-1 | 7.3% |
Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki stats
Kashima and V-varen Nagasaki recent form
| Kashima |
WWDLLL |
| V-varen Nagasaki |
LDWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kashima and V-varen Nagasaki season so far
Kashima record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
V-varen Nagasaki record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-16 | Kashima | V-varen Nagasaki | Emperor Cup | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.