J1 League
·
Full time
·Matchday 10
Kashima
vs
V-varen Nagasaki
2 – 0 Full time
| 2′ | Léo Ceará | ||
| 5′ | Aleksandar Čavrić | ||
| 23′ | Tenmu Matsumoto | ||
| 43′ | Jonathan Junior | ||
| 45′ | Sho OmoriRyoya Ogawa | ||
| 54′ | Tenmu MatsumotoKenshin Yasuda | ||
| 55′ | José Élber Pimentel da SilvaYuta Matsumura | ||
| 67′ | Ikki AraiRyosuke Shindo | ||
| 67′ | Jonathan JuniorRyogo Yamasaki | ||
| 72′ | Aleksandar ČavrićYuma Suzuki | ||
| 72′ | Gaku ShibasakiKento Misao | ||
| 82′ | Kenshin Yasuda | ||
| 85′ | Léo CearáHomare Tokuda | ||
| 85′ | Asahi MasuyamaHijiri Onaga | ||
| 85′ | Hotaru YamaguchiTakashi Sawada |
Kashima
61%
Draw
22%
V-varen Nagasaki
17%
Match stats
| 5 | Shots | 16 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 49 | Possession % | 51 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 3 | Saves | 2 |
| 405 | Accurate passes | 420 |
Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki
| Probability | Kashima | Draw | V-varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.2% | 21.9% | 20.8% |
| Market | 62.6% | 21.6% | 15.8% |
| Final | 61.2% | 21.7% | 17.1% |
| Edge | -1.3% | +0.1% | +1.3% |
Why Kashima
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
87%
3+ goals
67%
No goals
4%
Kashima and V-varen Nagasaki expected goals
Kashima
2.19
V-varen Nagasaki
1.29
Total expected goals: 3.48
Kashima and V-varen Nagasaki attack and defence ratings
Kashima
Attack
1.38 +38%
Defence
1.04 +4%
V-varen Nagasaki
Attack
0.94 -6%
Defence
1.11 +11%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki: result vs prediction
Kashima 2 – 0 V-varen Nagasaki
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Shimizu S-pulse v Gamba Osaka — match page
- JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga
- Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo — team news & stats
- Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale — team news & stats
- Mito Hollyhock v Urawa — match page
- Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus — team news & stats
- Fagiano Okayama vs Vissel Kobe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kashima | 61.2% | 1.63 | -1.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.5% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.9% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.9% | 2.33 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kashima | 61.2% |
| Draw | 21.7% | |
| V-varen Nagasaki | 17.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% |
| No | 34.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kashima win | 36.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 42.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.4% |
Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki stats
Kashima and V-varen Nagasaki recent form
| Kashima |
WWDLLL |
| V-varen Nagasaki |
DLDWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kashima and V-varen Nagasaki going into this match
Kashima record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
V-varen Nagasaki record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
5Kashima wins
0Draws
0V-varen Nagasaki wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-16 | Kashima | V-varen Nagasaki | Emperor Cup | 2-1 |
| 2021-08-18 | Kashima | V-varen Nagasaki | Emperor Cup | 3-1 |
| 2019-12-21 | Kashima | V-varen Nagasaki | Emperor Cup | 3-2 |
| 2018-08-15 | V-varen Nagasaki | Kashima | J1 League | 1-2 |
| 2018-05-02 | Kashima | V-varen Nagasaki | J1 League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.5%, draw 21.7%, away 15.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.53 | 4.41 | 6.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 4.10 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.52 | 4.15 | 5.90 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.54 | 4.50 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.49 | 4.30 | 5.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.52 | 4.46 | 6.12 |
| SBO | 1.48 | 3.87 | 5.13 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.50 —
X
4.35 ▲ +0.01
2
5.92 ▼ -0.08
10 snapshots recorded, from .