Shimizu S-pulse
vs
Gamba Osaka
Garuda Lions Prediction: Shimizu S-pulse
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka
| Probability | Shimizu S-pulse | Draw | Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.1% | 30.6% | 34.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 35.1% | 30.6% | 34.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Shimizu S-pulse
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka match preview
Shimizu S-pulse and Gamba Osaka are set to face off in an intriguing J1 League matchup. According to our model, Shimizu S-pulse has a 35% chance of winning, while Gamba Osaka stands at 34%, with a draw at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Shimizu S-pulse, occurring with a 10% probability. Both teams exhibit similar expected goals, with Shimizu S-pulse at 1.18 and Gamba Osaka at 1.17.
In terms of recent form, Shimizu S-pulse has recorded three wins, one draw, and two losses in their last six matches, while Gamba Osaka has struggled, with only one win and five matches without victory. The head-to-head record shows Shimizu S-pulse has yet to win against Gamba Osaka, with one draw and one loss in their last two encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Shimizu S-pulse and Gamba Osaka expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.35
Shimizu S-pulse and Gamba Osaka attack and defence ratings
Shimizu S-pulse
Gamba Osaka
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shimizu S-pulse | 35.1% | 2.85 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.3% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shimizu S-pulse | 35.1% |
| Draw | 30.6% | |
| Gamba Osaka | 34.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.1% |
| No | 50.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Shimizu S-pulse win | 15.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 64.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 0-0 | 10.9% | |
| 1-0 | 10.0% |
Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka stats
Shimizu S-pulse and Gamba Osaka recent form
| Shimizu S-pulse |
WWWLDL |
| Gamba Osaka |
LWLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Shimizu S-pulse and Gamba Osaka season so far
Shimizu S-pulse record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gamba Osaka record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Shimizu S-pulse | Gamba Osaka | J1 League | 1-2 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gamba Osaka | Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.