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J1 League · Full time ·Matchday 10

Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale

2 – 4 Full time

10′Pedro Romano
19′Ayumu Ohata
31′Asahi SasakiReon Yamahara
36′Pedro Romano
41′Reon Yamahara
43′Lucas Fernandes
45′Kento Tachibanada
45′Pedro RomanoYuichi Maruyama
48′Yota Komi
53′Jackson Irvine
65′Pablo Sabbag
66′Pablo SabbagSolomon Sakuragawa
74′Yasuto Wakizaka
75′Marcio Augusto da Silva BarbosaYuto Ozeki
76′Lucas FernandesShinji Kagawa
76′Yota KomiYumeki Yokoyama
85′Jackson IrvineKosei Okazawa
86′Derik LacerdaYu Kobayashi
87′Kento TachibanadaSo Kawahara
89′Yuto Ozeki

Yanmar Hanasaka Stadium, OsakaReferee: Masuya Ueda

Cerezo Osaka 34%
Draw 26%
Kawasaki Frontale 40%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 5
41 Possession % 59
3 Corners 2
10 Fouls 15
0 Offsides 7
1 Saves 1
329 Accurate passes 528

Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCerezo OsakaDrawKawasaki Frontale
Model34.6%27.1%38.3%
Market34.1%25.7%40.2%
Final34.2%26.1%39.7%
Edge+0.1%+0.3%-0.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Kawasaki Frontale

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Cerezo Osaka ↓ / Kawasaki Front → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 7% 1 7% 13% 9% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 55%
No goals 7%

Cerezo Osaka and Kawasaki Frontale expected goals

Cerezo Osaka 1.40
Kawasaki Frontale 1.49

Total expected goals: 2.89

Cerezo Osaka and Kawasaki Frontale attack and defence ratings

Cerezo Osaka

Attack 0.99 -1%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Kawasaki Frontale

Attack 1.28 +28%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale: result vs prediction

Cerezo Osaka 2 – 4 Kawasaki Frontale

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

J1 League

Before and after this match

Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Kawasaki Frontale 39.7% 2.52 -0.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55.3% 1.81 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.6% 1.68 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.9% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 61.6% 1.62 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Cerezo Osaka34.2%
Draw26.1%
Kawasaki Frontale39.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555.3%
Under 2.544.7%
Both teams to scoreYes59.6%
No40.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.3%
12 (either side)73.9%
X2 (draw or away)65.8%
Handicap -1Kawasaki Frontale win19.1%
Push (exactly one goal)19.3%
Loss61.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.7%
1-28.6%
2-18.1%

Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale stats

Cerezo Osaka and Kawasaki Frontale recent form

newest first
Cerezo Osaka DWDLDW
Kawasaki Frontale LWDWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Cerezo Osaka and Kawasaki Frontale going into this match

league record before kick-off

Cerezo Osaka record

  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.

Kawasaki Frontale record

  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Cerezo Osaka wins 4Draws 1Kawasaki Frontale wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-10-25Cerezo OsakaKawasaki FrontaleJ1 League2-0
2025-05-18Kawasaki FrontaleCerezo OsakaJ1 League2-0
2024-07-14Kawasaki FrontaleCerezo OsakaJ1 League1-1
2024-04-13Cerezo OsakaKawasaki FrontaleJ1 League1-0
2023-09-02Cerezo OsakaKawasaki FrontaleJ1 League3-0
2023-03-18Kawasaki FrontaleCerezo OsakaJ1 League0-0
2022-08-10Kawasaki FrontaleCerezo OsakaJ-League Cup2-2
2022-08-03Cerezo OsakaKawasaki FrontaleJ-League Cup1-1
2022-07-02Cerezo OsakaKawasaki FrontaleJ1 League2-1
2022-04-02Kawasaki FrontaleCerezo OsakaJ1 League1-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.2%, draw 25.8%, away 39.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.82 3.69 2.37
Bet365 2.70 3.50 2.35
BetVictor 2.75 3.80 2.30
Betano 2.72 3.55 2.37
Betfair 2.70 3.75 2.38
Dafabet 2.80 3.75 2.39
Marathonbet 2.75 3.60 2.31
Pinnacle 2.84 3.72 2.39
SBO 2.59 3.40 2.22
William Hill 2.75 3.40 2.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.75 ▼ -0.01
X 3.65 ▼ -0.02
2 2.33 —

10 snapshots recorded, from .