Kawasaki Frontale
vs
Nagoya Grampus
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kawasaki Frontale
2 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus
| Probability | Kawasaki Frontale | Draw | Nagoya Grampus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.7% | 17.3% | 11.1% |
| Market | 51.4% | 23.9% | 24.7% |
| Final | 56.5% | 22.2% | 21.3% |
| Edge | +20.2% | -6.6% | -13.6% |
Why Kawasaki Frontale
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.61 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Kawasaki Frontale below the model: +20.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus match preview
Kawasaki Frontale enters the match against Nagoya Grampus with a strong probability of winning at 56%. The expected goals for Kawasaki Frontale stand at 2.60, while Nagoya Grampus is projected to score only 0.98. This suggests a significant offensive advantage for Frontale, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0, occurring at a rate of 9%.
Recent form highlights a stark contrast between the two teams; Kawasaki Frontale has recorded a sequence of W-D-W-W-L-W, while Nagoya Grampus has struggled with L-L-L-L-W-L. Additionally, there is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match and a 58% probability that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kawasaki Frontale and Nagoya Grampus expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.58
Kawasaki Frontale and Nagoya Grampus attack and defence ratings
Kawasaki Frontale
Nagoya Grampus
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Kashima vs Gamba Osaka — team news & stats
- Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos — team news & stats
- Avispa Fukuoka v Fagiano Okayama — match page
- FC Tokyo v Urawa — match page
- Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia — team news & stats
- JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki
- Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-pulse
- Tokyo Verdy v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — match page
Before and after this match
Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kawasaki Frontale | 56.5% | 1.77 | +20.2% | 1.90 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.3% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.7% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Kawasaki Frontale win | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kawasaki Frontale | 56.5% |
| Draw | 22.2% | |
| Nagoya Grampus | 21.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.3% |
| No | 41.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kawasaki Frontale win | 51.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 28.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 9.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 3-0 | 8.2% |
Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus stats
Kawasaki Frontale and Nagoya Grampus recent form
| Kawasaki Frontale |
WDWWLW |
| Nagoya Grampus |
LLLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kawasaki Frontale and Nagoya Grampus season so far
Kawasaki Frontale record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Nagoya Grampus record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.4%, draw 23.9%, away 24.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.85 | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.90 | 3.75 |
| Betano | 1.82 | 3.85 | 3.80 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 4.00 | 3.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.90 | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.80 | 3.90 | 3.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.83 | 3.89 | 3.99 |
| SBO | 1.84 | 3.50 | 3.33 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .