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J1 League · Full time ·Matchday 9

Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus

1 – 2 Full time

2′Haruya Fujii
4′Yasuto Wakizaka
11′Kensuke Nagai
40′Reon Yamahara
58′Yuki Nogami
64′Derik LacerdaKyosuke Mochiyama
64′Reon YamaharaAsahi Sasaki
65′Kensuke NagaiYuya Yamagishi
65′Yuki NogamiMateus
68′Ryuji IzumiHidemasa Koda
68′Takuya UchidaMasahito Ono
72′Yuki YamamotoYuto Ozeki
72′Marcio Augusto da Silva BarbosaRyuki Osa
73′Yuya Yamagishi
83′Yasuto WakizakaAkihiro Ienaga
90′Tsukasa MorishimaYota Sato

Uvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu, KawasakiReferee: Yuzo Sutani

Kawasaki Frontale 57%
Draw 22%
Nagoya Grampus 21%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 15
2 Shots on target 5
51 Possession % 49
4 Corners 6
16 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 2
3 Saves 1
420 Accurate passes 402

Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityKawasaki FrontaleDrawNagoya Grampus
Model72.0%17.1%10.9%
Market51.4%23.9%24.7%
Final56.5%22.2%21.2%
Edge+5.1%-1.7%-3.4%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Kawasaki Frontale

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.61 vs 0.98.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Kawasaki Frontale below our published probability: +5.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Kawasaki Front ↓ / Nagoya Grampus → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 8% 2 9% 9% 3 8% 8% 4+ 10% 10%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 3%

Kawasaki Frontale and Nagoya Grampus expected goals

Kawasaki Frontale 2.61
Nagoya Grampus 0.98

Total expected goals: 3.59

Kawasaki Frontale and Nagoya Grampus attack and defence ratings

Kawasaki Frontale

Attack 1.32 +32%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Nagoya Grampus

Attack 0.80 -20%
Defence 1.38 +38%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus: result vs prediction

Kawasaki Frontale 1 – 2 Nagoya Grampus

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

J1 League

Before and after this match

Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Kawasaki Frontale 56.5% 1.77 +5.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 69.6% 1.44 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.3% 1.72 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 78.8% 1.27 — —
Handicap -1 Kawasaki Frontale win 51.1% 1.96 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Kawasaki Frontale56.5%
Draw22.2%
Nagoya Grampus21.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569.6%
Under 2.530.4%
Both teams to scoreYes58.3%
No41.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)78.8%
12 (either side)77.8%
X2 (draw or away)43.5%
Handicap -1Kawasaki Frontale win51.1%
Push (exactly one goal)20.6%
Loss28.3%
Correct score (top 3)2-09.5%
2-19.2%
3-08.3%

Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus stats

Kawasaki Frontale and Nagoya Grampus recent form

newest first
Kawasaki Frontale WDWWLW
Nagoya Grampus LLLLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Kawasaki Frontale and Nagoya Grampus going into this match

league record before kick-off

Kawasaki Frontale record

  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Nagoya Grampus record

  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.

Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Kawasaki Frontale wins 1Draws 3Nagoya Grampus wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-08-23Nagoya GrampusKawasaki FrontaleJ1 League3-4
2025-02-15Kawasaki FrontaleNagoya GrampusJ1 League4-0
2024-09-22Nagoya GrampusKawasaki FrontaleJ1 League2-0
2024-06-02Kawasaki FrontaleNagoya GrampusJ1 League2-1
2023-07-01Nagoya GrampusKawasaki FrontaleJ1 League2-0
2023-04-15Kawasaki FrontaleNagoya GrampusJ1 League1-2
2022-09-14Nagoya GrampusKawasaki FrontaleJ1 League1-1
2022-03-12Kawasaki FrontaleNagoya GrampusJ1 League1-0
2021-05-04Kawasaki FrontaleNagoya GrampusJ1 League3-2
2021-04-29Nagoya GrampusKawasaki FrontaleJ1 League0-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 51.4%, draw 23.9%, away 24.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.85 4.00 3.90
Bet365 1.80 3.90 3.80
BetVictor 1.83 4.00 3.80
Betano 1.82 3.85 3.80
Betfair 1.80 4.00 3.70
Dafabet 1.90 4.00 3.80
Marathonbet 1.80 3.90 3.80
Pinnacle 1.85 3.94 4.05
SBO 1.84 3.50 3.33
William Hill 1.80 3.75 3.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.83 ▲ +0.03
X 3.92 ▼ -0.06
2 3.80 —

12 snapshots recorded, from .