J1 League
·
Full time
·Matchday 8
FC Tokyo
vs
Nagoya Grampus
1 – 0 Full time
| 7′ | Takahiro Ko | ||
| 56′ | Kota Tawaratsumida | ||
| 58′ | Kota TawaratsumidaMotoki Nagakura | ||
| 61′ | Yuya YamagishiMateus | ||
| 61′ | Kein Sato | ||
| 68′ | Takahiro Ko | ||
| 70′ | MarceloKento Hashimoto | ||
| 75′ | Takuya UchidaTsukasa Morishima | ||
| 75′ | Ryuji IzumiHidemasa Koda | ||
| 77′ | Kein SatoHirokazu Ishihara | ||
| 77′ | Kashif BangnagandeMasato Morishige | ||
| 78′ | Rikizo Matsuhashi | ||
| 79′ | Yudai KimuraTomoya Koyamatsu | ||
| 90′ | Kento Hashimoto | ||
| 90′ | Katsuhiro Nakayama |
FC Tokyo
63%
Draw
21%
Nagoya Grampus
16%
Match stats
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 38 | Possession % | 62 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 2 | Saves | 1 |
| 282 | Accurate passes | 477 |
FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus
| Probability | FC Tokyo | Draw | Nagoya Grampus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75.2% | 15.6% | 9.2% |
| Market | 59.4% | 22.7% | 17.9% |
| Final | 63.3% | 20.9% | 15.7% |
| Edge | +15.9% | -7.1% | -8.8% |
Why FC Tokyo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.76 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Tokyo below the model: +15.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
97%
2+ goals
89%
3+ goals
71%
No goals
3%
FC Tokyo and Nagoya Grampus expected goals
FC Tokyo
2.76
Nagoya Grampus
0.91
Total expected goals: 3.67
FC Tokyo and Nagoya Grampus attack and defence ratings
FC Tokyo
Attack
1.33 +33%
Defence
0.78 -22%
Nagoya Grampus
Attack
0.89 -11%
Defence
1.44 +44%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus: result vs prediction
FC Tokyo 1 – 0 Nagoya Grampus
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashima
- Shimizu S-pulse vs JEF United Chiba
- Urawa v Tokyo Verdy — match page
- V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka — team news & stats
- Fagiano Okayama vs Kyoto Sanga — team news & stats
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Mito Hollyhock
- Gamba Osaka vs Vissel Kobe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Tokyo | 63.3% | 1.58 | +15.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.3% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Tokyo win | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Tokyo | 63.3% |
| Draw | 20.9% | |
| Nagoya Grampus | 15.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% |
| No | 43.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Tokyo win | 55.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 24.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 9.7% |
| 3-0 | 8.9% | |
| 2-1 | 8.8% |
FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus stats
FC Tokyo and Nagoya Grampus recent form
| FC Tokyo |
WWDWWW |
| Nagoya Grampus |
LLLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Tokyo and Nagoya Grampus going into this match
FC Tokyo record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Nagoya Grampus record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
5FC Tokyo wins
3Draws
2Nagoya Grampus wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | FC Tokyo | Nagoya Grampus | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Nagoya Grampus | FC Tokyo | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-26 | FC Tokyo | Nagoya Grampus | J1 League | 3-1 |
| 2024-09-14 | FC Tokyo | Nagoya Grampus | J1 League | 4-1 |
| 2024-05-15 | Nagoya Grampus | FC Tokyo | J1 League | 3-1 |
| 2023-06-24 | FC Tokyo | Nagoya Grampus | J1 League | 2-0 |
| 2023-03-18 | Nagoya Grampus | FC Tokyo | J1 League | 0-0 |
| 2022-10-29 | Nagoya Grampus | FC Tokyo | J1 League | 2-1 |
| 2022-04-20 | FC Tokyo | Nagoya Grampus | J1 League | 0-0 |
| 2021-10-10 | FC Tokyo | Nagoya Grampus | J-League Cup | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.4%, draw 22.7%, away 17.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.60 | 4.36 | 5.18 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.00 | 6.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 3.95 | 5.50 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.54 | 4.30 | 5.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.59 | 4.53 | 5.32 |
| SBO | 1.75 | 3.47 | 3.76 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.57 ▼ -0.26
X
4.10 ▲ +0.28
2
5.20 ▲ +1.33
14 snapshots recorded, from .