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J1 League · Full time ·Matchday 8

Urawa vs Tokyo Verdy

3 – 1 Full time

12′Shuhei Mizoguchi
24′Matheus Sávio
32′Matheus Sávio
44′Harumi Minamino
45′Hayato HiraoKazunari Ichimi
56′Kazunari Ichimi
58′Kosuke SaitoKai Shibato
58′Miki YamaneAtsushi Inagaki
62′Yuta Arai
67′Harumi MinaminoHiiro Komori
67′Hayate Ueki Eiichi Katayama
80′Kaito YasuiYoichi Naganuma
81′Matheus SávioSamuel Gustafson
86′Kaito SuzukiYuan Matsuhashi
86′Yuya FukudaKanya Fujimoto
89′Yuta AraiIssei Kumatoriya

Saitama Stadium 2002, SaitamaReferee: Jumpei Iida

Urawa 50%
Draw 28%
Tokyo Verdy 22%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 5
4 Shots on target 1
47 Possession % 53
8 Corners 3
8 Fouls 19
0 Offsides 1
244 Accurate passes 291

Urawa vs Tokyo Verdy overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Urawa vs Tokyo Verdy

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityUrawaDrawTokyo Verdy
Model53.7%25.6%20.7%
Market48.9%28.3%22.8%
Final50.1%27.6%22.3%
Edge+4.8%-2.7%-2.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Urawa

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.03.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Urawa below the model: +4.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Urawa ↓ / Tokyo Verdy → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 10% 12% 2 10% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 53%
No goals 7%

Urawa and Tokyo Verdy expected goals

Urawa 1.76
Tokyo Verdy 1.03

Total expected goals: 2.79

Urawa and Tokyo Verdy attack and defence ratings

Urawa

Attack 1.16 +16%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Tokyo Verdy

Attack 0.69 -31%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Urawa vs Tokyo Verdy: result vs prediction

Urawa 3 – 1 Tokyo Verdy

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

J1 League

Before and after this match

Urawa vs Tokyo Verdy markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Urawa 50.1% 2.00 +4.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.9% 1.89 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.3% 1.84 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 77.7% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.5% 2.15 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Urawa50.1%
Draw27.6%
Tokyo Verdy22.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.9%
Under 2.547.1%
Both teams to scoreYes54.3%
No45.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.7%
12 (either side)72.4%
X2 (draw or away)49.9%
Handicap -1Urawa win30.6%
Push (exactly one goal)23.0%
Loss46.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.2%
2-19.8%
1-09.7%

Urawa vs Tokyo Verdy stats

Urawa and Tokyo Verdy recent form

newest first
Urawa LWWWWL
Tokyo Verdy DDLLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Urawa and Tokyo Verdy going into this match

league record before kick-off

Urawa record

  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Tokyo Verdy record

  • They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.

Urawa vs Tokyo Verdy head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3Urawa wins 3Draws 2Tokyo Verdy wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-12UrawaTokyo VerdyJ1 League1-1
2026-03-14Tokyo VerdyUrawaJ1 League1-0
2025-09-27Tokyo VerdyUrawaJ1 League0-0
2025-05-03UrawaTokyo VerdyJ1 League2-0
2025-01-20UrawaTokyo VerdyFriendlies Clubs3-2
2024-10-19Tokyo VerdyUrawaJ1 League2-1
2024-03-03UrawaTokyo VerdyJ1 League1-1
2018-08-22UrawaTokyo VerdyEmperor Cup1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Urawa vs Tokyo Verdy odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 48.9%, draw 28.3%, away 22.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.97 3.37 4.11
Bet365 1.90 3.30 4.20
BetVictor 1.93 3.40 4.10
Betano 1.88 3.30 4.20
Betfair 1.85 3.40 4.10
Marathonbet 1.92 3.28 4.00
Pinnacle 1.97 3.39 4.30
SBO 1.82 3.12 3.90
William Hill 1.91 3.10 4.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.91 ▲ +0.16
X 3.30 ▼ -0.14
2 4.10 ▼ -0.52

9 snapshots recorded, from .