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J1 League · Full time ·Matchday 8

Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

0 – 1 Full time

11′Kaoru Yamawaki
19′Akito Suzuki
24′Takumi Kamijima
30′Taishi MatsumotoDaiki Suga
32′Tomoya Miki
36′Daiki Suga
45′Yuji KitajimaShintaro Nago
45′Tomoya Miki
45′Sota KoshimichiShimon Kobayashi
58′Masato ShigemiDaiki Miya
58′Kaoru YamawakiMasato Yuzawa
68′Shunki Higashi
72′Yuma TsujiokaYu Hashimoto
76′Mutsuki KatoTakumu Kawamura
82′Yota MaejimaIchika Maeda
83′Keiya ShiihashiOriol Romeu
90′Shun AyukawaNaoki Maeda

Best Denki Stadium, FukuokaReferee: Koji Takasaki

Avispa Fukuoka 18%
Draw 23%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 59%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

3 Shots 32
0 Shots on target 11
16 Possession % 84
2 Corners 16
12 Fouls 8
0 Offsides 2
9 Saves 0
69 Accurate passes 682

Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAvispa FukuokaDrawSanfrecce Hiroshima
Model13.0%20.2%66.8%
Market19.8%24.4%55.9%
Final18.1%23.3%58.6%
Edge-6.8%-4.2%+11.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Sanfrecce Hiroshima

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 0.92.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Sanfrecce Hiroshima below the model: +11.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Avispa Fukuoka ↓ / Sanfrecce Hiro → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 11% 8% 8% 1 10% 10% 7% 7% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

Avispa Fukuoka and Sanfrecce Hiroshima expected goals

Avispa Fukuoka 0.92
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2.26

Total expected goals: 3.17

Avispa Fukuoka and Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack and defence ratings

Avispa Fukuoka

Attack 0.87 -13%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Attack 1.72 +72%
Defence 0.74 -26%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: result vs prediction

Avispa Fukuoka 0 – 1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

J1 League

Before and after this match

Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 58.6% 1.71 +11.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.4% 1.63 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.6% 1.83 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 81.9% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 44.4% 2.25 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Avispa Fukuoka18.1%
Draw23.3%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima58.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.4%
Under 2.538.6%
Both teams to scoreYes54.6%
No45.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)41.4%
12 (either side)76.7%
X2 (draw or away)81.9%
Handicap -1Sanfrecce Hiroshima win44.4%
Push (exactly one goal)22.4%
Loss33.2%
Correct score (top 3)0-210.7%
1-29.8%
1-19.5%

Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima stats

Avispa Fukuoka and Sanfrecce Hiroshima recent form

newest first
Avispa Fukuoka LDLLDL
Sanfrecce Hiroshima WLWDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Avispa Fukuoka and Sanfrecce Hiroshima going into this match

league record before kick-off

Avispa Fukuoka record

  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima record

  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
  • They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.

Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Avispa Fukuoka wins 2Draws 6Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-29Avispa FukuokaSanfrecce HiroshimaJ1 League2-2
2026-04-05Sanfrecce HiroshimaAvispa FukuokaJ1 League0-1
2025-09-27Avispa FukuokaSanfrecce HiroshimaJ1 League1-2
2025-06-08Sanfrecce HiroshimaAvispa FukuokaJ-League Cup2-1
2025-06-04Avispa FukuokaSanfrecce HiroshimaJ-League Cup1-0
2025-05-03Sanfrecce HiroshimaAvispa FukuokaJ1 League2-1
2024-07-14Sanfrecce HiroshimaAvispa FukuokaJ1 League1-0
2024-04-13Avispa FukuokaSanfrecce HiroshimaJ1 League1-1
2023-12-03Avispa FukuokaSanfrecce HiroshimaJ1 League0-1
2023-05-07Sanfrecce HiroshimaAvispa FukuokaJ1 League3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 19.8%, draw 24.4%, away 55.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.77 3.88 1.72
Bet365 4.75 3.80 1.70
BetVictor 5.00 3.90 1.67
Betano 4.65 3.85 1.67
Betfair 4.75 3.90 1.67
Marathonbet 4.65 3.78 1.68
Pinnacle 4.81 4.06 1.72
SBO 4.26 3.45 1.66
William Hill 4.40 3.70 1.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.75 ▲ +0.85
X 3.85 ▲ +0.15
2 1.68 ▼ -0.17

14 snapshots recorded, from .