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J1 League · Full time ·Matchday 7

Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka

1 – 0 Full time

8′Werik PopoShintaro Nago
26′Daiki Miya
30′Daiki FukazawaTakumi Kamijima
34′Kenta Inoue
67′Kenta InoueTomoya Fujii
67′Kazuki KozukaWon Du-jae
71′Yudai Shimamoto
77′Keiya ShiihashiHiroki Akino
77′Yu HashimotoKaoru Yamawaki
77′Masato ShigemiAbdul Hanan Sani Brown
90′Mateus Brunetti ValorPark Seung-Wook
90′Oh Se-hunKosuke Kinoshita

IAI Stadium Nihondaira, ShizuokaReferee: Futoshi Nakamura, Japan

Shimizu S-pulse 31%
Draw 30%
Avispa Fukuoka 38%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 6
3 Shots on target 1
56 Possession % 44
1 Corners 5
12 Fouls 18
0 Offsides 2
1 Saves 2
371 Accurate passes 285

Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityShimizu S-pulseDrawAvispa Fukuoka
Model27.6%31.0%41.4%
Market32.3%30.2%37.5%
Final31.1%30.4%38.5%
Edge-4.7%+0.8%+4.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Avispa Fukuoka

  • The market prices Avispa Fukuoka below the model: +4.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Shimizu S-puls ↓ / Avispa Fukuoka → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 12% 8% 1 9% 14% 8% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 67%
3+ goals 39%
No goals 12%

Shimizu S-pulse and Avispa Fukuoka expected goals

Shimizu S-pulse 0.99
Avispa Fukuoka 1.27

Total expected goals: 2.26

Shimizu S-pulse and Avispa Fukuoka attack and defence ratings

Shimizu S-pulse

Attack 0.67 -33%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Avispa Fukuoka

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka: result vs prediction

Shimizu S-pulse 1 – 0 Avispa Fukuoka

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

J1 League

Before and after this match

Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Avispa Fukuoka 38.5% 2.60 +4.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 60.8% 1.64 — —
Both teams to score No 53.6% 1.87 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 69.6% 1.44 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 58.5% 1.71 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Shimizu S-pulse31.1%
Draw30.4%
Avispa Fukuoka38.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539.2%
Under 2.560.8%
Both teams to scoreYes46.4%
No53.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)61.5%
12 (either side)69.6%
X2 (draw or away)68.9%
Handicap -1Avispa Fukuoka win19.3%
Push (exactly one goal)22.2%
Loss58.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.4%
0-112.0%
0-011.8%

Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka stats

Shimizu S-pulse and Avispa Fukuoka recent form

newest first
Shimizu S-pulse LDLWLL
Avispa Fukuoka DLLDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Shimizu S-pulse and Avispa Fukuoka going into this match

league record before kick-off

Shimizu S-pulse record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.

Avispa Fukuoka record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.

Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

4Shimizu S-pulse wins 4Draws 1Avispa Fukuoka wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-10Shimizu S-pulseAvispa FukuokaJ1 League1-1
2026-03-18Avispa FukuokaShimizu S-pulseJ1 League1-1
2025-08-23Avispa FukuokaShimizu S-pulseJ1 League0-0
2025-04-20Shimizu S-pulseAvispa FukuokaJ1 League3-1
2022-09-17Avispa FukuokaShimizu S-pulseJ1 League3-2
2022-06-18Shimizu S-pulseAvispa FukuokaJ1 League3-1
2021-10-02Avispa FukuokaShimizu S-pulseJ1 League1-2
2021-03-06Shimizu S-pulseAvispa FukuokaJ1 League2-2
2019-08-14Shimizu S-pulseAvispa FukuokaEmperor Cup1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.3%, draw 30.2%, away 37.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.97 3.12 2.56
Bet365 2.88 3.20 2.45
BetVictor 2.90 3.13 2.55
Betano 2.90 3.05 2.52
Betfair 2.80 3.10 2.45
Marathonbet 2.90 3.05 2.50
Pinnacle 3.04 3.14 2.59
SBO 2.80 3.05 2.47
William Hill 2.80 3.00 2.45

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.90 ▲ +0.03
X 3.10 ▼ -0.14
2 2.50 ▲ +0.04

4 snapshots recorded, from .