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J1 League · Full time ·Matchday 7

Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos

1 – 1 Full time

12′Kaina Tanimura
20′Hotaka Nakamura
45′Ryohei Shirasaki
45′Hotaka NakamuraMin-Tae Kim
45′Takuma NishimuraTete Yengi
51′Ryotaro TsunodaToichi Suzuki
65′Kosuke MatsumuraShin Miidera
67′Tomoki Kondo
72′Takahiro Akimoto
73′Ryohei ShirasakiHokuto Shimoda
73′Ryuho KikuchiYusuke Matsuo
79′Ryo MiyaichiTakuya Kida
79′Kaina TanimuraRio Nitta
81′Kei ChinenTakuto Kimura
81′Takahiro Akimoto
84′Hiroyuki MaeIbrahim Drešević
84′Henry Heroki Mochizuki

Machida GION Stadium, MachidaReferee: Koji Takasaki, Japan

Machida Zelvia 50%
Draw 26%
Yokohama F. Marinos 24%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 11
5 Shots on target 3
55 Possession % 45
5 Corners 6
8 Fouls 10
4 Offsides 0
2 Saves 3
392 Accurate passes 312

Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMachida ZelviaDrawYokohama F. Marinos
Model53.1%26.0%20.9%
Market49.3%26.2%24.5%
Final50.3%26.1%23.6%
Edge+3.7%-0.2%-3.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Machida Zelvia

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.01.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Machida Zelvia below the model: +3.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Machida Zelvia ↓ / Yokohama F. Ma → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 10% 12% 2 10% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 52%
No goals 8%

Machida Zelvia and Yokohama F. Marinos expected goals

Machida Zelvia 1.73
Yokohama F. Marinos 1.01

Total expected goals: 2.74

Machida Zelvia and Yokohama F. Marinos attack and defence ratings

Machida Zelvia

Attack 1.54 +54%
Defence 0.65 -35%

Yokohama F. Marinos

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 0.79 -21%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos: result vs prediction

Machida Zelvia 1 – 1 Yokohama F. Marinos

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

J1 League

Before and after this match

Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Machida Zelvia 50.3% 1.99 +3.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 51.5% 1.94 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.4% 1.87 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 76.4% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.9% 2.13 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Machida Zelvia50.3%
Draw26.1%
Yokohama F. Marinos23.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551.5%
Under 2.548.5%
Both teams to scoreYes53.4%
No46.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.4%
12 (either side)73.9%
X2 (draw or away)49.7%
Handicap -1Machida Zelvia win30.0%
Push (exactly one goal)23.1%
Loss46.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.4%
1-010.1%
2-19.8%

Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos stats

Machida Zelvia and Yokohama F. Marinos recent form

newest first
Machida Zelvia WWDWWW
Yokohama F. Marinos WDLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Machida Zelvia and Yokohama F. Marinos going into this match

league record before kick-off

Machida Zelvia record

  • They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Yokohama F. Marinos record

  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

4Machida Zelvia wins 1Draws 2Yokohama F. Marinos wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-06Machida ZelviaYokohama F. MarinosJ1 League2-0
2026-02-06Yokohama F. MarinosMachida ZelviaJ1 League2-3
2025-08-23Yokohama F. MarinosMachida ZelviaJ1 League0-0
2025-05-31Machida ZelviaYokohama F. MarinosJ1 League0-3
2024-07-20Machida ZelviaYokohama F. MarinosJ1 League1-2
2024-06-15Yokohama F. MarinosMachida ZelviaJ1 League1-3
2023-07-12Yokohama F. MarinosMachida ZelviaEmperor Cup1-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 49.3%, draw 26.2%, away 24.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.93 3.64 3.94
Bet365 1.90 3.60 3.90
BetVictor 1.93 3.60 3.90
Betano 1.88 3.60 3.85
Betfair 1.90 3.60 3.80
Marathonbet 1.88 3.56 3.85
Pinnacle 1.95 3.75 3.90
SBO 1.94 3.42 3.58
William Hill 1.91 3.50 3.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.91 ▲ +0.16
X 3.60 ▼ -0.11
2 3.85 ▼ -0.47

4 snapshots recorded, from .