J1 League
·
Full time
·Matchday 8
Machida Zelvia
vs
Kashiwa Reysol
2 – 4 Full time
| 38′ | Yuki Soma | ||
| 45′ | Hinata YamauchiMasaki Watai | ||
| 45′ | Shota FujioYusuke Segawa | ||
| 53′ | Yusuke Segawa | ||
| 58′ | Keita Endo | ||
| 59′ | Ryohei ShirasakiHokuto Shimoda | ||
| 62′ | Hokuto Shimoda | ||
| 65′ | Yoshio Koizumi | ||
| 72′ | Tete YengiYusuke Matsuo | ||
| 72′ | Henry Heroki MochizukiTakuma Nishimura | ||
| 76′ | Koki Kumasaka | ||
| 82′ | Keita EndoHiromu Mitsumaru | ||
| 82′ | Ibrahim DreševićThomas Ouwejan | ||
| 82′ | Koki KumasakaRiki Harakawa | ||
| 85′ | Seiya Baba | ||
| 88′ | Yusuke Segawa | ||
| 90′ | Riki Harakawa | ||
| 90′ | Koki Ogawa |
Machida Zelvia
43%
Draw
27%
Kashiwa Reysol
31%
Match stats
| 7 | Shots | 23 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 10 |
| 36 | Possession % | 64 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 6 | Saves | 0 |
| 277 | Accurate passes | 586 |
Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol
| Probability | Machida Zelvia | Draw | Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.4% | 22.7% | 17.9% |
| Market | 36.9% | 28.2% | 34.9% |
| Final | 42.6% | 26.8% | 30.6% |
| Edge | +22.5% | -5.5% | -17.0% |
Why Machida Zelvia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.07.
- The market prices Machida Zelvia below the model: +22.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
83%
3+ goals
61%
No goals
5%
Machida Zelvia and Kashiwa Reysol expected goals
Machida Zelvia
2.07
Kashiwa Reysol
1.07
Total expected goals: 3.14
Machida Zelvia and Kashiwa Reysol attack and defence ratings
Machida Zelvia
Attack
1.46 +46%
Defence
0.67 -33%
Kashiwa Reysol
Attack
1.23 +23%
Defence
0.98 -2%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol: result vs prediction
Machida Zelvia 2 – 4 Kashiwa Reysol
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashima
- Shimizu S-pulse vs JEF United Chiba
- Urawa v Tokyo Verdy — match page
- V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka — team news & stats
- FC Tokyo v Nagoya Grampus — match page
- Fagiano Okayama vs Kyoto Sanga — team news & stats
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Mito Hollyhock
Before and after this match
Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Machida Zelvia | 42.6% | 2.35 | +22.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.3% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.6% | 2.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Machida Zelvia | 42.6% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 30.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.3% |
| No | 41.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Machida Zelvia win | 37.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 40.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.3% |
Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol stats
Machida Zelvia and Kashiwa Reysol recent form
| Machida Zelvia |
DWWDWW |
| Kashiwa Reysol |
WLLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Machida Zelvia and Kashiwa Reysol going into this match
Machida Zelvia record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Kashiwa Reysol record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
4Machida Zelvia wins
1Draws
3Kashiwa Reysol wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Machida Zelvia | Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League | 1-0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Kashiwa Reysol | Machida Zelvia | J1 League | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-06 | Kashiwa Reysol | Machida Zelvia | J1 League | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-17 | Machida Zelvia | Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League | 3-0 |
| 2024-10-19 | Kashiwa Reysol | Machida Zelvia | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2024-05-03 | Machida Zelvia | Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League | 2-0 |
| 2019-11-16 | Machida Zelvia | Kashiwa Reysol | J2 League | 0-3 |
| 2019-03-02 | Kashiwa Reysol | Machida Zelvia | J2 League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.8%, draw 28.4%, away 34.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.60 | 3.39 | 2.72 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.25 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.30 | 2.67 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.53 | 3.30 | 2.65 |
| Pinnacle | 2.60 | 3.43 | 2.76 |
| SBO | 2.43 | 3.06 | 2.56 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.55 —
X
3.34 ▲ +0.04
2
2.70 ▲ +0.07
8 snapshots recorded, from .