J1 League
·
Full time
·Matchday 6
Nagoya Grampus
vs
Machida Zelvia
1 – 3 Full time
| 23′ | Y. AsanoY. Yamagishi | ||
| 36′ | D. OkamuraH. Mochizuki | ||
| 43′ | Ryuji Izumi | ||
| 45′ | R. Shirasaki | ||
| 46′ | Takahiro Akimoto | ||
| 46′ | Y. NogamiT. Hara | ||
| 55′ | H. Mochizuki | ||
| 65′ | K. NagaiT. Koyamatsu | ||
| 66′ | R. ShirasakiH. Shimoda | ||
| 66′ | T. NishimuraT. Yengi | ||
| 70′ | R. IzumiY. Sato | ||
| 75′ | A. Pisano | ||
| 85′ | Tomoki Takamine | ||
| 85′ | Y. SomaY. Matsuo | ||
| 86′ | K. OgawaM. Duke | ||
| 90′ | Y. Matsuo |
Nagoya Grampus
24%
Draw
25%
Machida Zelvia
51%
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 61 | Possession % | 39 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 1 |
| 418 | Accurate passes | 246 |
Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia
| Probability | Nagoya Grampus | Draw | Machida Zelvia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10.5% | 16.9% | 72.6% |
| Market | 28.7% | 27.5% | 43.8% |
| Final | 24.2% | 24.9% | 51.0% |
| Edge | -18.2% | -10.6% | +28.8% |
Why Machida Zelvia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Machida Zelvia below the model: +28.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
88%
3+ goals
69%
No goals
4%
Nagoya Grampus and Machida Zelvia expected goals
Nagoya Grampus
0.94
Machida Zelvia
2.62
Total expected goals: 3.56
Nagoya Grampus and Machida Zelvia attack and defence ratings
Nagoya Grampus
Attack
1.02 +2%
Defence
1.34 +34%
Machida Zelvia
Attack
1.48 +48%
Defence
0.65 -35%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia: result vs prediction
Nagoya Grampus 1 – 3 Machida Zelvia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Avispa Fukuoka v Mito Hollyhock — match page
- JEF United Chiba vs Gamba Osaka
- Kashima vs Urawa — team news & stats
- Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — team news & stats
- Cerezo Osaka vs Tokyo Verdy — team news & stats
- Kashiwa Reysol vs Yokohama F. Marinos
- Vissel Kobe vs V-varen Nagasaki
- Kawasaki Frontale v Shimizu S-pulse — match page
Before and after this match
Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Machida Zelvia | 51.0% | 1.96 | +28.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Machida Zelvia win | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nagoya Grampus | 24.2% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Machida Zelvia | 51.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% |
| No | 42.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Machida Zelvia win | 52.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 27.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 9.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 0-3 | 8.5% |
Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia stats
Nagoya Grampus and Machida Zelvia recent form
| Nagoya Grampus |
LWLWLL |
| Machida Zelvia |
WDWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nagoya Grampus and Machida Zelvia going into this match
Nagoya Grampus record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Machida Zelvia record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
2Nagoya Grampus wins
1Draws
6Machida Zelvia wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Machida Zelvia | Nagoya Grampus | J1 League | 2-1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Nagoya Grampus | Machida Zelvia | J1 League | 2-2 |
| 2025-11-30 | Machida Zelvia | Nagoya Grampus | J1 League | 3-1 |
| 2025-03-02 | Nagoya Grampus | Machida Zelvia | J1 League | 1-2 |
| 2024-07-06 | Machida Zelvia | Nagoya Grampus | J1 League | 1-0 |
| 2024-03-02 | Nagoya Grampus | Machida Zelvia | J1 League | 0-1 |
| 2017-08-16 | Machida Zelvia | Nagoya Grampus | J2 League | 3-4 |
| 2017-05-17 | Nagoya Grampus | Machida Zelvia | J2 League | 2-1 |
| 2015-09-09 | Nagoya Grampus | Machida Zelvia | Emperor Cup | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.8%, draw 27.8%, away 43.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.32 | 3.46 | 2.19 |
| Bet365 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.35 | 2.22 |
| Betfair | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.30 | 3.45 | 2.24 |
| Marathonbet | 3.24 | 3.38 | 2.14 |
| Pinnacle | 3.34 | 3.61 | 2.19 |
| SBO | 2.98 | 3.20 | 2.08 |
| Superbet | 3.20 | 3.35 | 2.20 |
| Unibet | 3.40 | 3.35 | 2.02 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.27 ▲ +0.08
X
3.42 ▲ +0.04
2
2.15 ▼ -0.01
4 snapshots recorded, from .