J1 League
·
Full time
·Matchday 6
Fagiano Okayama
vs
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3 – 2 Full time
| 10′ | Kota Kawano | ||
| 16′ | Oberdan Alionço de Lima | ||
| 21′ | Kota Kawano | ||
| 45′ | Sébastien Haller | ||
| 45′ | Naoto AraiShun Ayukawa | ||
| 50′ | Kota Kawano | ||
| 58′ | Mutsuki KatoTakumu Kawamura | ||
| 58′ | Kota KawanoLéo Gaúcho | ||
| 61′ | Oberdan Alionço de Lima | ||
| 64′ | Hayao Kawabe | ||
| 65′ | Lucas Marcos MeirelesKamiya Yuta | ||
| 66′ | Ibuki FujitaEiji Miyamoto | ||
| 66′ | Ataru EsakaNa Sang-Ho | ||
| 79′ | Hayato ArakiSota Koshimichi | ||
| 79′ | Yotaro NakajimaTaishi Matsumoto | ||
| 86′ | Shunki HigashiDaiki Suga | ||
| 88′ | Kosuke ShiraiDaichi Tagami | ||
| 90′ | Eiji Miyamoto | ||
| 90′ | Léo GaúchoSoichiro Mori |
Fagiano Okayama
25%
Draw
27%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
47%
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 22 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 23 | Possession % | 77 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Offsides | 4 |
| 5 | Saves | 2 |
| 154 | Accurate passes | 705 |
Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
| Probability | Fagiano Okayama | Draw | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.4% | 30.1% | 46.5% |
| Market | 26.0% | 26.4% | 47.6% |
| Final | 25.3% | 27.3% | 47.3% |
| Edge | -2.6% | +3.7% | -1.1% |
Why Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
88%
2+ goals
68%
3+ goals
40%
No goals
12%
Fagiano Okayama and Sanfrecce Hiroshima expected goals
Fagiano Okayama
0.90
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.37
Total expected goals: 2.28
Fagiano Okayama and Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack and defence ratings
Fagiano Okayama
Attack
1.08 +8%
Defence
0.71 -29%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Attack
1.47 +47%
Defence
0.59 -41%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: result vs prediction
Fagiano Okayama 3 – 2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Avispa Fukuoka v Mito Hollyhock — match page
- JEF United Chiba vs Gamba Osaka
- Kashima vs Urawa — team news & stats
- Nagoya Grampus v Machida Zelvia — match page
- Cerezo Osaka vs Tokyo Verdy — team news & stats
- Kashiwa Reysol vs Yokohama F. Marinos
- Vissel Kobe vs V-varen Nagasaki
- Kawasaki Frontale v Shimizu S-pulse — match page
Before and after this match
Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 47.3% | 2.11 | -1.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fagiano Okayama | 25.3% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 47.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.7% |
| No | 54.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima win | 23.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 53.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 0-1 | 12.8% | |
| 0-0 | 11.5% |
Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima stats
Fagiano Okayama and Sanfrecce Hiroshima recent form
| Fagiano Okayama |
WLWDWL |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
WDWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fagiano Okayama and Sanfrecce Hiroshima going into this match
Fagiano Okayama record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
2Fagiano Okayama wins
1Draws
1Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Fagiano Okayama | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League | 1-0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Fagiano Okayama | J1 League | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-05 | Fagiano Okayama | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-12 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Fagiano Okayama | J1 League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.0%, draw 26.4%, away 48.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.75 | 3.60 | 1.90 |
| 1xBet | 3.66 | 3.62 | 2.01 |
| Bet365 | 3.75 | 3.40 | 1.91 |
| BetVictor | 3.60 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.75 | 3.55 | 1.93 |
| Betfair | 3.75 | 3.75 | 1.91 |
| Dafabet | 3.85 | 3.70 | 1.96 |
| Marathonbet | 3.58 | 3.54 | 1.96 |
| Pinnacle | 3.74 | 3.68 | 2.02 |
| SBO | 3.28 | 3.31 | 1.92 |
| Superbet | 3.75 | 3.55 | 1.92 |
| Unibet | 3.80 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.63 ▼ -0.12
X
3.57 ▼ -0.03
2
1.98 ▲ +0.07
4 snapshots recorded, from .