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J1 League · Full time ·Matchday 5

JEF United Chiba vs Fagiano Okayama

1 – 2 Full time

31′Leo Gaucho
36′H. KidaT. Taguchi
41′K. Tanaka
45′Takumi Tsukui
46′Na Sang-HoA. Esaka
64′K. KawanoKamiya Yuta
64′Leo GauchoLucao
70′K. YamuraK. Yonekura
70′T. TsukuiN. Tsubaki
70′ErisonT. Matsumura
77′Koki Yonekura
81′H. MotoyamaK. Shirai
84′K. TanakaT. Yasui
87′T. YamaneN. Browne
90′Eiji Miyamoto
90′Kamiya Yuta

Fukuda Denshi Arena, ChibaReferee: Yusuke Ohashi, Japan

JEF United Chiba 20%
Draw 25%
Fagiano Okayama 54%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

7 Shots 18
1 Shots on target 4
47 Possession % 53
4 Corners 5
9 Fouls 13
2 Saves 0
286 Accurate passes 353

JEF United Chiba vs Fagiano Okayama overview

Garuda Lions analysis: JEF United Chiba vs Fagiano Okayama

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityJEF United ChibaDrawFagiano Okayama
Model10.5%19.7%69.8%
Market23.8%26.8%49.4%
Final20.5%25.0%54.5%
Edge-13.3%-7.1%+20.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Fagiano Okayama

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 0.77.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Fagiano Okayama below the model: +20.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

JEF United Chi ↓ / Fagiano Okayam → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 12% 9% 9% 1 9% 10% 7% 7% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 81%
3+ goals 58%
No goals 6%

JEF United Chiba and Fagiano Okayama expected goals

JEF United Chiba 0.77
Fagiano Okayama 2.23

Total expected goals: 2.99

JEF United Chiba and Fagiano Okayama attack and defence ratings

JEF United Chiba

Attack 0.76 -24%
Defence 1.60 +60%

Fagiano Okayama

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 0.72 -28%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

JEF United Chiba vs Fagiano Okayama: result vs prediction

JEF United Chiba 1 – 2 Fagiano Okayama

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

J1 League

Before and after this match

JEF United Chiba vs Fagiano Okayama markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Fagiano Okayama 54.5% 1.84 +20.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 57.5% 1.74 — —
Both teams to score No 51.4% 1.95 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 79.5% 1.26 — —
Handicap -1 Fagiano Okayama win 46.8% 2.14 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2JEF United Chiba20.5%
Draw25.0%
Fagiano Okayama54.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557.5%
Under 2.542.5%
Both teams to scoreYes48.6%
No51.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)45.5%
12 (either side)75.0%
X2 (draw or away)79.5%
Handicap -1Fagiano Okayama win46.8%
Push (exactly one goal)23.0%
Loss30.2%
Correct score (top 3)0-212.4%
0-110.3%
1-29.5%

JEF United Chiba vs Fagiano Okayama stats

JEF United Chiba and Fagiano Okayama recent form

newest first
JEF United Chiba LDLLLL
Fagiano Okayama LWDWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

JEF United Chiba and Fagiano Okayama going into this match

league record before kick-off

JEF United Chiba record

  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Fagiano Okayama record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.

JEF United Chiba vs Fagiano Okayama head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6JEF United Chiba wins 3Draws 1Fagiano Okayama wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2024-08-10Fagiano OkayamaJEF United ChibaJ2 League0-0
2024-06-01JEF United ChibaFagiano OkayamaJ2 League2-1
2023-10-01Fagiano OkayamaJEF United ChibaJ2 League0-5
2023-03-25JEF United ChibaFagiano OkayamaJ2 League1-1
2022-07-30Fagiano OkayamaJEF United ChibaJ2 League1-1
2022-05-08JEF United ChibaFagiano OkayamaJ2 League1-0
2021-12-05Fagiano OkayamaJEF United ChibaJ2 League1-3
2021-05-09JEF United ChibaFagiano OkayamaJ2 League4-2
2020-11-01Fagiano OkayamaJEF United ChibaJ2 League3-2
2020-09-19JEF United ChibaFagiano OkayamaJ2 League2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

JEF United Chiba vs Fagiano Okayama odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 23.8%, draw 26.8%, away 49.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.85 3.50 1.90
1xBet 4.04 3.60 1.92
Bet365 4.00 3.50 1.85
BetVictor 4.10 3.60 1.87
Betano 3.95 3.45 1.90
Betfair 3.90 3.50 1.90
Dafabet 4.10 3.65 1.91
Marathonbet 3.94 3.52 1.87
Pinnacle 4.16 3.72 1.90
SBO 3.55 3.19 1.87
Superbet 3.90 3.55 1.88
Unibet 3.60 3.40 1.93
William Hill 3.75 3.40 1.85

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.94 ▲ +0.11
X 3.50 ▲ +0.10
2 1.90 ▼ -0.05

6 snapshots recorded, from .